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Thursday, August 30, 2012

Democratic Pollster Finds Romney Leads Obama With Independents By Over 15 Percentage Points

By Susan Duclos

Hot Air points to Suitably Flip and RCP , both of which list the Democratic leaning pollster, Democracy Corps, polling figures, which shows that Mitt Romney is leading Barack Obama among Independents by over 15 points with leaners and nearly 14 points without leaners.

Recently Third Way delved into voter registration in key battleground states, and their findings show just how important Independents voters are going to be in the 2012 elections.

With both parties about to head to key battleground states for their National Conventions, the time is ripe to delve into how these states—and 6 other crucial battlegrounds—have changed since the last time around. In our newest analysis of the numbers in the 8 presidential battleground states with partisan voter registration, we find:
  • Democratic registration is down 800,329, or 5.2%;
  • Republican registration is down 78,985, or 0.7%; and,
  • Independent registration is up 486,677, or 6.4%.

Keep in mind that in 2008, In 2008,  Obama won 52 percent of independent voters.

Romney has been pulling ahead of Obama among Independents for months according to different polling organizations.

In mid-April Gallup found Romney ahead of Obama with Independents by six points, 45 percent to 39 percent.

By the end of April, beginning of May,  a POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll had Romney over Obama among Independents by 10 percentage points, 48 percent to 38 percent.

As of August 9-12, 2012, Gallup found that 42 percent self identify as Independents, 29 percent as Democrats and 26 percent as Republicans.

"The Obama Independents are the real heart of the contest for 2012. If President Obama wins the bulk of the Obama Independents, he’ll be reelected; but if the Republican nominee can peel off enough votes, he’ll be number 45."---- Third Way: 2012 Showdown