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Monday, August 27, 2012

Even Skewing Samples To Favor Democrats, Wapo/ABC Poll Has Romney Ahead By 1%

By Susan Duclos

The Washington Post/ABC News poll numbers are out and Mitt Romney comes in ahead of Barack Obama by one percentage point, 47 percent to 46 percent and Romney is ahead with Independents by a four point margin.

The samples used, as mentioned by Hot Air's Ed Morrissey, are again skewed towards Democrats. The "all adults" sample is 31 percent Democrat, 22 percent Republican, 39 percent Independent, 6 percent other and 3 percent don't know.

The "registered voters" sample is 32 percent Democrat, 25 percent Republican, 36 percent Independent, 6 percent other and 2 percent don't know.

Samples shown here, drop menu allows choice of all adults or registered voters.

As Morrissey points out, while Democrats had a 7 point advantage in the 2008 presidential election, by 2010 the split was 35/35/30.

Reports came out on August 15, 2012 that Democratic voter registration in key battleground states had gone down 10 percent more than Republican registration had since 2008, while Independents in those states had gained nearly half a million voters. (WuA wrote about that here)

 Add in that most polling organizations are now using the "likely voter" model as the election nears because it is more predictive of the outcome, yet WAPO/ABC News used adults and registered voters, but have not begun sampling likely voters as of this poll, as CNN and Fox have both begun to and Rasmussen has been using the likely voter model for a while now.

Keeping in mind the skewed sample, the numbers for each candidate on the issues becomes even more disastrous  for Obama.

The Post-ABC survey highlights the dominance of the economy as an issue in the 2012 election. Seventy-two percent of voters say the president’s handling of the economy will be a “major factor” in their vote this November.

About all those distractions Democrats have been throwing out to avoid dealing with the economy?

Fewer voters place great significance on other issues that have roiled the campaign, including newly minted GOP vice presidential candidate’s plan to restructure Medicare, differences between the parties on women’s issues and Romney’s handling of his tax returns.

Morrissey breaks down the Wapo/ABC News numbers on the key issues:

  • Economy: Romney 50/43
  • Deficit: Romney 51/38
  • Taxes: Romney 48/43
Romney even has an edge on Medicare, 45/42, which shows just how unpopular ObamaCare is.  Obama gets an overall edge on health care, 47/45, and on education, 45/42, but these are usually huge Democrat issues.  Obama has dissipated the traditional Democratic Party advantages, and left himself no shelter on jobs, the economy, and deficit control.

Now imagine what these numbers would be if the Wapo/ABC News poll used a sample representative of the electorate in 2012, not 2008, and if they were using the more predictive likely voter model.