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Tuesday, August 21, 2012

First Wisconsin, Now Michigan, Romney Ahead Of Obama

By Susan Duclos

Earlier it was discussed that a Democratic polling firm, Public Policy Polling found that Mitt Romney was ahead of Obama in Wisconsin, showing a seven point net gain since announcing that Paul Ryan was his vice presidential running mate and now a Michigan poll from Foster McCollum White Baydoun shows Romney ahead of Obama in Michigan, another Democratic stronghold.

Question 1:
The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you more likely to vote for in the election??
(Barack Obama):                                                                                  43.88%
(Mitt Romney):                                                                                     47.68%
(Another candidate):                                                                              3.96%
 (Undecided):                                                                                        4.01%

Question #2:
Republican nominee Mitt Romney has selected Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his vice presidential nominee. Does the selection of Paul Ryan make you more or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney in the United States Presidential election?
(Paul Ryan makes you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney):                   36.11%
(Paul Ryan makes you less likely to vote for Mitt Romney):                     27.90%
(If the pick makes no difference in your choice):                                      36.85%

Question #3:
Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has been selected as the Republican vice presidential nominee. Congressman Ryan has proposed federal budgets that drastically cut the federal deficit, cuts taxes on job creators and proposes the reform of Medicare and Social Security benefits. The Tea Party and business groups support Ryan's budget as fiscally responsible, reducing the size and cost of unsustainable programs. Democrats, senior citizens groups and a number of economists oppose Ryan's budget proposal citing it gives the richest Americans a tax cut, privatizes Social Security and Medicare and will have a negative effect on the economy. Do you support Congressman Ryan's budget plan for the federal government?
 (For strongly support):                                                                           34.77%
 (For somewhat support):                                                                       13.22%
Total Support                                                                                         47.99%
(For strongly oppose):                                                                            41.59%
(For somewhat oppose):                                                                         3.42%
Total Oppose                                                                                         45.01%
(For undecided):                                                                                    8.52%

"Romney has identified a clear game changer if his strategy is to divide the Midwest and blow a bugle in President Obama's Midwestern Strategy", states Eric Foster, chief pollster and President of Foster McCollum White & Associates. "Romney may be attempting to isolate Illinois and Pennsylvania by having Michigan and Wisconsin in play. That also limited Obama's opportunity to strengthen resource and advertising in Ohio and Indiana if Michigan and Wisconsin are competitive".

In spite of national criticism of the Ryan selection and budget plan, our findings suggest that Michigan voters are viewing both as positives for Romney. 36.11% of Michigan voters are more likely to vote for Romney because of the Paul Ryan selection while only 27.90% are less likely to vote for Romney. That is a positive statistical advantage for Romney of 8.21 points or 29.42%. Tarek Baydoun, statistical analyst for Foster McCollum White Baydoun reflects, "While Romney may have challenges connecting to voters, Paul Ryan seems to humanize him and make him more acceptable to voters like his wife Ann Romney does."

Additionally the Ryan Budget plan is supported by a plurality of Michigan voters. 47.99% support Ryan's budget which includes a major overhaul of Medicare and Social Security while 45.01% oppose the plan. What is statistically interesting is the fact that 41.59% of Michigan voters strongly oppose the plan and only 34.77% strongly support the plan. The margin for Ryan's plan comes from the soft supporters, who outnumber the soft opponents by a four to one margin (13.22% to 3.42%).

"The past week for President Obama was not helpful to his numbers," per Eric Foster, chief pollster for Foster McCollum White Baydoun. "The campaign is very fluid, as we identified in June, the President's campaign needs to shift its focus towards presenting more of a business case narrative of why voters should re-elect President Obama while better defining why Romney/Ryan is not good for America."

If Romney is doing so well against Obama despite the massive spending Obama has been doing against Romney, where he is spending more than he is bringing in and spending over double the amount, how much worse is it going to be for Obama when Romney starts spending his huge cash on hand advantage against Obama in the last months before the presidential election?


How Ryan Recasts The Race- WSJ

(Grammatical changes made to this post)