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Saturday, August 18, 2012

44 States See Unemployment Increase, Gallup Projects Increase in Unemployment Rate For August

By Susan Duclos

Friday August 17, 2012 the United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, released the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary, which showed that 44 states recorded unemployment rate increases, two states and the District of Columbia posted rate decreases, and four states had no change, for July 2012.

Gallup reports that their unemployment data suggests an increase in the government's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August when it is reported on Friday, Sept. 7.

Gallup's Daily tracking of the unemployment situation is based on interviews with more than 30,000 adults over the 30 days ending Aug. 15, and shows essentially no change in the unadjusted unemployment rate at 8.3% compared to 8.2% in July. In turn, this suggests that the government's unadjusted unemployment rate could increase to 8.7% in July from 8.6% in June. The government's measurement of the unadjusted unemployment rate has been known to differ with Gallup's findings, but a drop of 0.3% in July is necessary to bring the government's unadjusted rate down to Gallup levels.

More interestingly, there were no BLS seasonal adjustments in August 2011. If this remains the same in 2012, the Gallup seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August would be 8.3% while that of the BLS would be 8.7%, assuming a similar increase to that shown in the Gallup data. Further, Gallup's data show the labor force participation rate to be increasing in August. In turn, that could have an additional negative impact on the unemployment rate for August if the government's data show a similar pattern.

Gallup concludes:

...barring heroic adjustments or a sharp change in direction, Gallup data suggest the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for August will increase -- possibly substantially -- when announced in early September.    

These are not numbers Obama wants to see less than three months before the November presidential election, especially after Gallups recent Obama approval/disapproval nightmare numbers published on August 16, 2012:

Creating Jobs- 58 percent disapprove and 37 percent approve.
The Economy-  60 percent disapprove and 36 percent approve.
Federal Budget Deficit- 64 percent disapprove and 30 percent approve.

Is it any wonder that Obama has gone back to his 2008 playbook against Hillary Clinton when he wanted to distract the public from seeing he had no executive experience, so he harped on her to "release her taxes!!!"

Now, he does have experience and a record of failure he cannot run on and has been judged and found wanting, so he is trying the very same distraction technique against Romney by screaming "Release your taxes!!"

Couple questions to ponder.

1.) Has there ever been a presidential candidate who elected or not elected based on their tax returns for the last 7-10 years?

2.) Does Obama truly think the American electorate is idiotic enough to fall for the same trick again?

Unlike some of my Conservative brethren, I do not think Romney should release more than two years of tax returns because in November, consistent patterns in polling have made it clear the voters are going to hold job creation and the economy as the key issues for who they are going to vote for in November and only one ticket, Romney/Ryan, is focusing on those issues.

The other ticket, Obama/Biden is using race baiting, class warfare and scare tactics.