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Saturday, October 09, 2010

The Democratic Comeback That Isn't

Nate Silver from Democratic leaning FiveThirtyEight has even worse news for Democrats than Charlie Cook's political projection of the GOP gaining 40 House seats in the midterms... Silver sees the GOP with a 72 percent chance of taking control of the House of Representatives and nearly even odds of taking 50 seats.

Worse yet for Liberals Silver states that the GOP "maintain decent chances of taking over the Senate."

His theory of why all the talk of a Democratic comeback when no models actually favor that scenario?

So why all the talk about a Democratic comeback? Some of it may be because the news media had been a little bit too sure of itself in forecasting Democratic doom before, and now is (over)compensating.

I disagree.

I think the media believes if they say something enough, reiterate it from different publications they believe they can influence the outcome.

In the final weeks before November 2, 2010 (election day)there will be massive advertising from candidates as well as outside groups from both sides of the aisle, but it is doubtful whether Democrats can convince an annoyed electorate that they will do anything different should they be elected again.

They aren't even trying to convince voters things will be different, instead choosing to attack, bring up personal issues that have nothing to do with what concerns voters, basically running scared from their very own votes in the House and Senate.

They are trying to avoid mentioning their voting records, their so-called "accomplishments" because almost every one was done against major opposition from the majority of their constituents as well as the majority of Americans.

Silver has one silver lining for Democrats though:

We do show Democrats with a slightly stronger number on the generic ballot than they had a few weeks ago — down about 6.5 points among likely voters rather than 8. (This is in spite of a Gallup poll which shows a considerably larger advantage for Republicans and a change to the procedure our model uses to calculate its likely voter adjustment). But when one looks at a more diverse set of indicators, as our model does, there are few signs of Democratic momentum.

No one will know the full extent of the damage Obama, Reid, Pelosi and Democrats have done to themselves over the last two years until election night results are in, but it is very telling that Obama's 2008 campaign manager, David Plouffe, is already trying to "reshape expectations", via Wapo:

Trying to reshape expectations for the midterm elections, David Plouffe said Thursday that the Republicans should be expected to make a full sweep of Congress - and key gubernatorial races - given the environmental advantages they have. Anything less, he said, should be seen as a disgrace.


Handicappers might give the GOP a small chance of taking control of the Senate, but the House is the only chamber that seems an almost certain turnover.

The Senate is a hope for the GOP and they will continue to try to pick up seats, but most conservatives are running with the assumption, as of now (anything can happen in the next few weeks) that the House is within reach and the Senate is a long shot.

Plouffe's statement is a preemptive move meant to give Liberals talking points after the election, but the statement is very telling because even he knows a tidal wave is about to hit Democrats and they will need that very fragile lifeline he just threw them on November 3, 2010, the day after Hurricane GOP hits.