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Thursday, October 28, 2010

GOP Election Day advantage aided by surge in independents who lean Republican

The title is the sub header for the new Gallup report issued titled "2010 Electorate Still Looking More Republican Than in the Past."

In this report Gallup confirms that those that will be voting in the midterms will be similar to the demographics of those that voted in the 2006 election which gave control of Congress to the Democrats.

Only this time, they leaning towards Republicans.

At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.

Further findings:

Specifically, 55% of likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 14-24, 2010, polling are Republicans and independents who lean Republican. This is higher than the Republican showing in the past four midterm elections, although not too dissimilar to the 51% found in 2002. The corollary of this is that the 40% of likely voters now identifying as Democratic is the lowest such percentage of the past several midterms.

Notably, this year's high Republican representation among likely voters stems mainly from a substantial increase in Republican-leaning independents in the likely voter pool -- now at 16% -- reflecting the broader shift toward the Republican Party among independents evident since 2009.

Independents will be key on election night which is confirmed by a CBS News/New York Times poll.

With the midterm elections less than a week away, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds that Republicans continue to hold an advantage over Democrats in the generic House ballot. Forty-six percent of likely voters say they plan to vote Republican, while 40 percent say they will vote Democrat. (Learn more about how to interpret the generic House ballot here.)

The advantage can be attributed in large part to independents, who are breaking hard for the GOP. Forty-seven percent of independent likely voters say they plan to vote Republican, while just 32 percent plan to vote Democrat. Seventeen percent haven't made up their minds.

More than four in five Democrats and Republicans, meanwhile, say they are sticking with their party.

Side Note- While projections give the GOP control of the House of Representatives, the Senate majority still most likely will be held by Democrats with a much smaller majority.

With that said, in one of the most closely watched races, Nevada's Senate race, Sharron Angle now has a four point lead on Harry Reid, in two separate polls, one done by TIME/CNN/Opinion Research and another Rasmussen Reports.

A loss for Reid means Harry Reid would no longer be Senate Majority leader.