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Sunday, October 31, 2010

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll: GOP Has 10 Point Advantage In Generic Ballot

Two days before the midterm elections and CNN/Opinion Research Corporation publishes the results of their latest poll showing the GOP has a 10 point advantage in the congressional generic ballot, where voters are asked whether they will vote for a Republican or Democrat without any names given.

Republicans do better in the likely voter model than they do with all registered voters, with 52 percent of likely voters saying they will cast their vote for the Republican and 42 for the Democrat on the ballot.

Majorities of Republicans and Democrats both state they will vote for their own party candidate, which is why Independents are the voting blog to watch.

Among Independents, those not affiliated with either party, 55 percent will vote for the Republican choice with only 32 percent saying they will vote for the Democratic choice.

"Six in ten suburban voters say they plan to vote for the Republican candidate for the U.S. House on Tuesday,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “That's not good news for the Democrats since most of the seats in play are in suburban districts."

Full poll results can be found at this link. (PDF)

While I have often said polls are simply a snapshot and are not always correct, they are a great indicator of patterns, meaning if polls all head in one direction consistently, then a pattern emerges that gives those watching the polls a general idea of how an election will turn out.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation polling numbers are on the high end of the scale for Republicans, with a Washington Post-ABC News poll showing the GOP with only a 4 point advantage among likely voters and Democratic advantage among registered voters.

The pattern is still there, the actual figures differ but two interesting portions of the Wapo article written about their poll stood out.

A narrow majority of likely voters, 52 percent, also disapproves of the way Obama is handling his job as president.


Among voters who are inclined to skip Tuesday's vote, Obama boasts a heartier 58 percent approval rating.

What this tells us is all the stumping around the country by Barack Obama to help Democrats limit the projected losses, hasn't helped.