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Saturday, December 12, 2009

2010 Senate Races- Dems Not Favored

Rasmussen has a number of polls showing an uphill battle that many Democrats are likely to lose in the 2010 elections.


Sharon Lowden, chairman of the Nevada Republican Party and a former state senator, and businessman Danny Tarkanian both pick up 49% of the vote against Reid in the latest survey. Former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle gets 47% of the vote in her match-up with the four-term senator.

In every case, the number who favor some other candidate or are undecided are virtually identical and in single digits.

In September, Lowden led Reid by 10 percentage points, 50% to 40%, while Tarkanian bested him 50% to 43%.

Men strongly favor any of the Republicans over Reid, while the incumbent has the edge among women. Voters not affiliated with either political party support any of the Republicans over Reid by 10 or more points.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Nevada voters have a very unfavorable opinion of Reid. Just 21% offer a very favorable opinion of the senator.


Likely Republican nominee Pat Toomey is now ahead of both Democrats who are vying to run against him next year in Pennsylvania’s 2010 race for the U.S. Senate.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters finds Toomey capturing 46% against incumbent Senator Arlen Specter’s 42%. In October, Toomey had a virtually identical 45% to 40% lead.


Former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons is still his toughest opponent, leading Dodd 48% to 35%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate in this contest, and 11% are undecided. Those figures are a slight improvement for Simmons since September.

The newest Republican in the race, Linda McMahon, the ex-CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, earns 44% of the vote to Dodd’s 38%. Eight percent (8%) opt for another candidate, with nine percent (9%) not sure.


A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Norton beating incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet 46% to 37%, virtually identical to her lead in September. Eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.


As she did in September, Lincoln trails four possible Republican challengers in the latest Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey. In fact, support for the incumbent ranges from only 39% to 41% in these match-ups.

The two-term senator, who was reelected with 54% of the vote in 2004, appears more vulnerable because of her visible and pivotal role in the Senate debate over health care. Lincoln was the last Democrat to vote for allowing the debate to formally begin, and she has taken pains to point out that a vote to begin debate is not a vote for the bill.

Looking at the data, it’s easy to understand Lincoln’s concern. Against all four Republicans, she leads by wide margins among those who favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. The senator even leads by a wide margin among those who Somewhat Oppose the legislation. But among those who Strongly Oppose the health care plan, Lincoln trails every potential Republican challenger by more than 50 percentage points.

The really bad news for Lincoln is that 56% of Arkansas voters Strongly Oppose the congressional health care plan. Just 18% Strongly Favor it.

Related, Nevada:


***Sixty-six percent (66%) of Nevada voters say the health care plan proposed by the president and congressional Democrats will raise the deficit. Seventy-five percent (75%) believe passage of the plan will prompt a middle-class tax increase to pay for it, with 59% who say a tax hike is very likely.


***Fifty-seven percent (57%) support the president’s plan to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan, but Nevada voters are narrowly divided over his establishment of a timetable to begin pulling troops out in 18 months. Thirty-five percent (35%) say Obama’s handling of Afghanistan is god or excellent. Thirty-six percent (36%) rate it poor.


***Obama beat John McCain 55% to 43% in Nevada in November 2008. But now 55% disapprove of the president’s performance in office, while 46% approve. These numbers include 44% who strongly disapprove of the job he is doing and 29% who strongly approve, slightly stronger disapproval than seen overall nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Question: After only one year in office, is Barack Obama already a weight pulling Democratic politicians down?