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Thursday, June 23, 2011

Rove On The Four Serious Threats To Obama's Reelection Chances

Karl Rove's piece in the Wall Street Journal explains the four most serious threats to Barack Obama's reelection chances in 2012:

The economy is very weak and unlikely to experience a robust recovery by Election Day. Key voter groups have soured on him. He's defending unpopular policies. And he's made bad strategic decisions.

Rove explains all four in detail at WSJ, but he also shows Obama's decline in all voting demographics:

Mr. Obama's standing has declined among other, larger groups. Gallup reported his job approval rating Tuesday at 45%, down from 67% at his inaugural. Among the groups showing a larger-than-average decline since 2009 are whites (down 25 points); older voters (down 24); independents and college graduates (both down 23), those with a high-school education or less, men, and Southerners (all down 22); women (down 21 points); married couples and those making $2,000-$4,000 a month (down 20). This all points to severe trouble in suburbs and midsized cities in states likes Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada.

There's more. Approval among younger voters has dropped 22 points, and it's dropped 20 points among Latinos. Even African-American voters are less excited about Mr. Obama than they were—and than he needs them to be. For example, if their share of the turnout drops just one point in North Carolina, Mr. Obama's 2008 winning margin there is wiped out two and a half times over.

Add this to the latest brutal poll numbers, the devastating CBO report on our long term debt and the economic incompetence of the Obama administration we reported on yesterday and the right GOP candidate could beat Obama quite easily.

Anyone thinking Rick Perry sounds good about now?