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Wednesday, June 29, 2011

'Rookie Mistakes And Bumbling' Concern and Appall Die Hard Jewish Democrats

Every election year we see Republicans claim they are making inroads with the pro-Israel Jewish community. A donor here and a donor there, some Jewish American votes are inroads when the majority of time Jewish Americans vote for Democrats.

When die hard Democrats and Jewish Obama defenders start saying they are "appalled by Obama’s “rookie mistakes and bumbling” and other pro-Israel "traditional" Democrats state that to their own astonishment they are considering voting Republican in 2012, then Barack Obama's inexperience and stumbling has cost the Democratic party more than just votes, but donors as well.

The Politico concludes, after what they refer to as several dozen interviews with center-left American Jews and Obama supporters many of which were Democratic donors, that a "tipping point has been reached."

Matasar remembers his friends’ worries over whether Obama was “going to be OK for Israel.” But then Obama met with the community’s leaders during a swing through Cleveland in the primary, and the rabbi at the denominationally conservative synagogue Matasar attends — “a real ardent Zionist and Israel defender” — came back to synagogue convinced.

“That put a lot of my concerns to rest for my friends who are very much Israel hawks but who, like me, aren’t one-issue voters.”

Now Matasar says he’s appalled by Obama’s “rookie mistakes and bumbling” and the reported marginalization of a veteran peace negotiator, Dennis Ross, in favor of aides who back a tougher line on Netanyahu. He’s the most pro-Obama member of his social circle but is finding the president harder to defend.

“He’d been very ham-handed in the way he presented [the 1967 border announcement] and the way he sprung this on Netanyahu,” Matasar said.

A Philadelphia Democrat and pro-Israel activist, Joe Wolfson, recalled a similar progression.

“What got me past Obama in the recent election was Dennis Ross — I heard him speak in Philadelphia and I had many of my concerns allayed,” Wolfson said. “Now, I think I’m like many pro-Israel Democrats now who are looking to see whether we can vote Republican.”

By the Numbers

Obama won the 2008 presidential election against John McCain by 7 percent 53 to 46 percent.

No one bloc of voters will guarantee Obama's reelection or loss of reelection in 2012, but numbers show that Barack Obama is losing some support from virtually every demographic.

According to Gallup in April, 2011, when Obama took office in 2009, 60 percent of non- Hispanic whites approved of Barack Obama, that number has dropped to 39 percent.

73 percent of Hispanics approved of Obama in 2009, that is down to 54 percent.

93 percent of non-Hispanic blacks approved of Obama in 2009, that is down to 85 percent.

Approval from Independents, a bloc helped Obama win in 2008, for Barack Obama fell from 47 percent in February to just 37 percent in March according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Pew Research shows that Independents, like Republicans are more likely to view the economy as poor and a McClatchy-Marist poll shows that 60 percent of Independents disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy.

Gallup, Rasmussen, McClatchy-Marist and Democratic leaning pollsters from Democracy Corps, all show Obama with a higher disapproval rating than approval overall.

According to Gallup and Rasmussen, both in June 2011, a Generic Republican would beat Obama in the presidential election if it were held today, by a 4 to 5 percent margin.

Add the unhappy pro-Israel demographic that Politico just reported on into the mix and that 7 percent margin that won Obama the 2008 election is gone.