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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Interesting Polling Information

Obama's Quote from a fundraising breakfast in New York: "For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky and think this is all set, I just [have] two words for you: New Hampshire.You know I've been in these positions before where we were favored and the press starts getting carried away and we end up getting spanked. And so that's another good lesson that Hillary Clinton taught me."

DJ Drummond over at Wizbang has been doing some research into polling organizations and the latest article has some very interesting facts provided, so I suggest you read the whole thing.

Teaser: Where the individual polling organizations are based:

Poll Headquarters
ABC News 77 W 66th St, #13, New York City, New York
CBS News 524 W 57th St, New York City, New York
FOX News 1211 Avenue of the Americas, New York City, New York
Gallup 901 F St NW, Washington DC
Hotline 88 Pine St, 32nd floor, New York City, New York
IBD 12655 Beatrice St. Los Angeles, California
The Los Angeles Times 202 W 1st St, Los Angeles California
Marist Institute 3399 North Rd, Poughkeepsie, New Jersey York
Mason-Dixon 1250 Connecticut Ave #200, Washington DC
Newsweek 251 W 57th St, New York City, New York
The New York Times 1 City Hall, New York City, New York
Pew Research Center 1615 L St NW, #700, Washington DC
Quinnipiac 275 Mount Carmel Ave., Hamden Connecticut
Rasmussen 625 Cookman, #2, Asbury Park, New Jersey
Reuters 3 Times Square, New York City, New York
Survey USA 15 Bloomfield Ave., Verona New Jersey
TIPP 690 Kinderkamack Rd, Oradell, New Jersey
Washington Post 1150 15th St NW, Washington DC
Zogby 901 Broad St, Utica, New York

As I wrote then, it needs noting that all of the major polling organizations are based in locations where liberals are strongest and conservatives weakest, where 'democrat' and 'republican' take on meanings wildly different from the rest of the country. The people making the executive decisions at these polls, most likely including the wording and order of polling questions, whether to focus on urban or suburban areas, the weighting of political affiliation, and the definition of 'likely voter', are most likely in regular contact and association with the most liberal factions of politics. It does not mean that they have deliberately skewed their decisions to support Obama, but it is obvious that there is an apparent conflict of interest in their process modality.

That is but the tip of the iceberg, so go make sure to read the entire thing.

Vox Popoli makes another point I have mentioned here a time or ten.

I have to admit, it always seems bizarre to me when a poll announces that in a recent polling of 850 Democrats and 600 Republicans, Obama has a 58-42 advantage. I mean, do they even have to ask the question to figure that one out? I understand the concept of estimating dynamic party identifications and electoral turnout, but it seems to me that given the weight of those estimates, the actual answers are irrelevant.

Drummond admits clearly that this could all be wrong, but the reasoning behind his opinion is solid.

So, could I be wrong? I have to be honest and admit that I could. But in that case, we'd have to ask why the polls do not generally agree with each other, why Gallup is trying to spin three different models at the same time to get a grasp of the picture, why McCain and Obama are both so interested in Pennsylvania, yet neither is working very hard in Ohio right now. We'd have to explain why McCain-Palin rallies are now attracting thousands more people than Obama-Biden rallies, why Letterman suddenly found it cool to have McCain on his show and SNL decided they wanted Palin on theirs. We'd have to explain why there are not a lot of Obama signs visible, but we hear about his army of lawyers getting ready. We'd have to explain why McCain and Palin appear to be so relaxed while Obama and Biden look like they're worried.

Obama himself made a point of telling his supporters to remember New Hampshire, as his quote at the beginning shows, and how far ahead he was in the polls, then Hillary walked away with it.

What will happen on November 4, 2008 is anyone's guess, but the one clear thing here is that everyone needs to get out and vote. I don't care what state you are in and whether you feel "my state is blue so why bother?" or "my state is red so they don't need my vote."

Get out and vote. Make your vote count and never assume that the outcome is written in the stars, it isn't.

If Wizbang is right, then the upset will no doubt cause all sorts of problems, to which the police are already preparing for, according to The Hill.

More on polling and reading polls from the Wall Street Journal.