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Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Two Percentage Point Difference Among Likely Voters?

The media keeps trumpeting an Obama win in the upcoming election just a week away but the polling seems to show that the result is not a foregone conclusion by any means.

Among "likely voters" which uses the traditional models of historical voting habits, there is a two percentage point advantage for Barack Obama, according to Gallup.

Gallup has also started something new they call their "expanded" models which doesn't take history and previous voting history into account at all and under that model Obama holds a seven percentage point lead.

The traditional likely voter model matches the recent IBD/TIPP poll which showed an Obama advantage at 3 percentage points as well.

About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season.

Obama's "spread the wealth" comments seem to have started resounding echo inside the heads of those that previously were undecided and it is not a theme the majority wanted to hear and these most recent numbers might be reflecting that.

The media might want people to think the race is over but with one week to go it seems the "people" have decided their votes might just actually count more than the pre-election "spin."

On a side note since we are talking about the media here, it also looks like MSNBC is getting ripped by both sides of the aisle with Democrats saying they are "completely out of control."