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Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Zogby Poll Now Matches Rasmussen Showing John McCain Slightly Ahead Of Barack Obama

For the second day in a row Rasmussen shows John McCain and Barack Obama tied with 44 percent and with "leaners" added, McCain takes a 1 percentage point lead. Zogby also shows McCain with a 1 percent lead and Obama losing support with the young and women
Yesterday Rasmussen Reports showed that John McCain and Barack Obama were tied with 44 percent and when "leaners" ( those that lean one way or another but haven't yet decided) are added, McCain takes a statistically insignificant lead of 1 percent.

Rasmussen Report today shows those numbers unchanged and another polling organization, Zogby International, releases a report showing McCain ahead of Obama by one point as well, with those numbers being McCain 42 percent and Obama 41 percent.

Zogby compares these figures with their July poll which had Obama ahead of McCain by 10 percentage points at 46 percent to 36 percent, in a four-way match-up that included Libertarian candidate Bob Barr of Georgia and liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader.

Zogby called the results a "notable turnaround"

This latest poll also lists what groups that McCain has seen gains in and that Obama has lost support from:

-In the age group 18-29, Obama still leads McCain, 49 to 38 percent, but Obama has lost 16 percent and McCain gained 20 in that age group.

-Obama still leads with women as well at 43 to 38 percent over McCain, but McCain has seen a gain of 10 percentage points in that group.

-Obama previously had an 11 percent lead in Independents, which he has lost and now he and McCain are tied with that group.

-Obama's support from Democrats has dropped from 84 percent to 74 percent.

-McCain now leads Obama among Catholics by 15 percent. In July Obama led McCain by 11 percent among that group of voters.

-Obama has also lost some support among college graduates and those with family incomes of $25,000 - $35,000

-Zogby also shows that Obama has lost support, although he still leads, among minorities.

According to Pollster John Zogby, "The McCain camp seems to have turned lemons into lemonade. Huge crowds and mostly favorable press reviews of Obama’s overseas trip have been trumped by McCain’s attacks on Obama. Loss of support for Obama among young voters may also be due to his perceived reversals on issues they care about, such as the war and government eavesdropping.”

Zogby continues on to show figures for the electoral voting states:

Electoral votes decide the Presidency, and this ATV/Zogby poll gives signs that McCain is making gains in winning key states. By region, McCain’s greatest gains came in the Central U.S. and in the West, home to several key battleground states. What was a narrow Obama lead in the Central U.S. is now a 45%-36% McCain edge. In the West, Obama’s 15% lead is gone, and McCain is now ahead, 43%-40%.

The Zogby poll was commissioned by Associated TV and was conducted July 31-Aug. 1, 2008.