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Thursday, August 28, 2008

Gallup Shows Convention Bounce For Obama After Day Three

There has been much concern expressed from liberal political blogs, pundits and on forums about the lack of Convention "bounce" for Obama in the polling for the last few days. Today Gallup allays some of that concern by showing the long awaited "bounce"
A bounce is generally known as an uptick in polling after events of consequence happing in a political campaign and traditionally, as shown by Center For Policy Org., that bounce ranges from minus one to plus 28, with very few election seasons showing a drop in polling numbers or non-movement, depending on the years tracked from 1960 to 2004.

Gallup just released their daily tracking report which should allay the concerns that have been expressed by liberal bloggers, websites, media and pundits across the web.

The expected bounce that has appeared is a six-point lead showing Obama over McCain with 48 percent to 42 percent.

The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention "bounce" that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades.

Gallup points out this bounce is not yet reflective of Bill Clinton, nor Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden's speeches from last night.

The highest bounce ever seen was for the Democrats after their convention, was 28 points in 1992 for Bill Clinton.

The only other presidential daily tracking poll published today is from Rasmussen, which as of yet, is not showing the same bounce that Gallup is showing, listing it as a modest one percentage point uptick, with the race between John McCain and Barack Obama listed as 45 percent for Obama and 44 percent for McCain and when "leaners", those that lean toward the Democrats or Republicans, are added, the race ties up at 47 percent to 47 percent.

Both polls are the result of a three-day rolling average basis and both carry a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

It is expected that John McCain will announce his vice presidential pick tomorrow, hoping to limit and counter the convention bounce that Obama is receiving now, by taking over the news coverage for the weekend, leading into the Republican Convention which starts next week.