Custom Search

Thursday, March 20, 2008

John McCain, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Jeremiah Wright and Trends

Two days after Barack Obama's speech regarding his Pastor's "God Damn America" comments, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows John McCain opened a seven-point lead over Obama. Clinton also widens lead over Obama in Pennsylvania.
In the ever changing landscape of American politics, one never knows what will negatively affect a candidate nor how difficult or easy it will be to bounce back from any given controversy.

I have been writing about the ongoing damage that comments from Barack Obama's Pastor of 20 years, Jeremiah Wright, has inflicted upon the Barack Obama campaign for presidency.

In the first Wake up America article, the video is shown as well as the fact that according to Rasmussen reports, 66 percent of respondents to their poll has said they had seen, heard or read about Wright's comments and 56 percent, said Wright’s comments made them less likely to vote for Obama. That figure included 44 perecent of Democrats.

The second Wake up America article was written after Barack Obama gave a speech to try to limit the damage that his association with Wright had wrought on his campaign and asked if Obama had gone far enough in distancing himself from Wright in that speech.

Which leads us to today's news.

Hillary Clinton vs Barack Obama.


According to a Franklin and Marshall College Poll released today, Hillary Clinton has doubled her lead against Barack Obama in Pennsylvania since the poll conducted last month.

As of last month Obama was "gaining ground" in Pennsylvania and the poll results released today show Hillary Clinton now has a 51 percent to 35 percent lead over Obama with likely Democratic voters. Last month Clinton was ahead by half that margin, 44 percent to 37 percent.

This latest poll confirms one released two days ago from Quinnipiac University, which also showed that the momentum in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary battle has shifted back to New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

The Franklin and Marshall College Poll also shows that Obama's unfavorable rating has jumped from 16 percent to 25 percent and his favorable rating has plunged by 10 points to 47 percent since a Franklin & Marshall Poll last month.

National presidential nomination preference:

In a Gallup poll released yesterday, Hillary Clinton now leads Barack Obama in the national Democratic nomination preference, by 49 percent to 42 percent.

Gallup points out that this is the first time, in over a month, that Clinton has held a statistically significant lead.

Obama's campaign has been plagued by controversial remarks made by his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Obama delivered a major speech on race Tuesday to try to move beyond the controversy. The initial indications are that the speech has not halted Clinton's gaining momentum, as she led by a similar margin in Tuesday night's polling as compared to Monday night's polling.

Barack Obama's speech was hailed a success by many and others questioned if it would stem the negativity that was being generated by his association with Jeremiah Wright and the results of these recently released polls have not shown that to be the case as of yet.

John McCain vs Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Keeping up with an ongoing trend, another Rasmussen Report for March 20, 2008, is suggesting that early data suggests that the controversy over Jeremiah Wright is having a "negative impact on Obama’s chances of winning the general election against John McCain."

In the week before the media frenzy over Wright, Obama and McCain were essentially tied in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Less than a week later, and two days after Obama’s speech, McCain had opened a seven-point lead over Obama......

That report also shows that while both Democratic candidates hold leads over McCain in New York, Connecticut and California, Mccain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.

This follows on the heels of a Gallup poll that indicated that John McCain holds a 67 percent favorable rating is the "highest of any of the three major candidates running for president."

No one can reliably predict whether these trends will continue or not, nor what major controversy or scandal will hit one of these three presidential candidates which could alter the political landscape.

All that can be reasonably predicted at this time is that the months leading up to the November 2008 presidential election, promises to be interesting for those of us that are considered political junkies.