A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.
Then there is this:
The new results come from a Sept. 5-7 survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention and mirror the resulting enhanced position of the Republican Party seen in several other indicators. These range from John McCain's improved standing against Barack Obama in the presidential race to improved favorability ratings of the Republicans, to Republican gains in party identification. The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.
The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.
Read the whole thing and match it up with Rasmussen's new poll showing McCain ahead and then look over at Real Clear Politics poll averages, which shows McCain leading in 7 out of nine polls, with one (a previous Rasmussen poll) showing Obama ahead by one and one older one showing a tie, and we have sen the tides turn in the Republicans favor over the last two weeks, not only for the presidential race, but now conservatives have a chance to even take Congress back.
Is it any wonder that Democratic officials and supporters are starting to panic?
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