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Tuesday, July 01, 2008

CNN Poll: Barack Obama and John Mccain In Statistical 'Dead Heat'

CNN'S new poll headlines with "New CNN Poll: Obama, McCain in a statistical dead heat". It shows that Obama holds a 5 percentage point lead on McCain until Bob Barr and Ralph Nader are added in, then Obama holds only 3 percentage point lead.
According to Keating Holland who is the CNN Polling Director, Obama holds a slight advantage over McCain but not enough to be considered a statistical lead and he even says that it appears that June has been a good month for Obama.

With the dust having finally settled after the prolonged Democratic presidential primary, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll shows Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama locked in a statistical dead heat in the race for the White House.

This new survey also mentions the lingering question about Barack Obama's patriotism is still a factor in the statistics, with the breakdown showing that 10 percent of Democrats say say Obama lacks patriotism, with 29 percent of Independents of saying the same thing and that number rises to 40 percent of Republicans that believe that.

25 percent of all registered voters say Obama lacks patriotism,

90 percent of all registered voters view John McCain as being patriotic.

Even though the race becomes tighter when the third party candidates, Barr and Nader, are figured into the statistics, no one is clear at what actual effect they will have on the general election itself because as Holland says, "A useful rule of thumb is that third-party candidates in November get no more than half the support polls show them having in June or July."

The poll was conducted on June 26-29, 208, with 906 registered voters and holds a margin error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.