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Thursday, May 01, 2008

Clinton Surges as Controversy Dogs Obama

Polls may just be snapshots of the here and now, but considering the next Democratic primaries are days away on May 6, 2008, these snapshots give a good guide to opinions and how badly the latest infusion to the Obama/Wright controversy is harming the Obama campaign against Hillary Clinton. shows a flurry of polls all showing the suggestion of a Clinton surge and that the controversies dogging Barack Obama are having an impact.

They show the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey where Obama's lead has narrowed and his favorable rating has dropped.

The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll where Clinton leads by a small margin and again Obama's unfavorable rating is up 9 points since February and by 10 percentage points, Democrats now view Clinton as likelier than Obama to beat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. Democrats gave Obama a 4-point edge last month.

The New York Times/CBS poll still has Obama in the lead but they noticed that while 51 percent say they believe he will be the eventual nominee, that number has dropped 18 percentage points (from 69 percent) in just one month.

And in a Quinnipiac University poll, Clinton runs stronger than Obama in match-ups against McCain in the general election swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Clinton would get 49 percent to McCain's 41 percent in Florida, leads 48 percent to 38 percent in Ohio, and 51 percent to 37 percent in Pennsylvania.

Another poll, the InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April shows that in just two weeks, Obama has gone from a double digit lead over Clinton to trailing her by 2 points.

The results were:

Hillary Clinton: 44%
Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 14%

On and on the world of politics goes and this party fracturing contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama shows no signs of ending and the divisions are so deep and becoming so entrenched within the Democratic party supporters that some claim they will sit out the election in November if their candidate doesn't win the nomination.

Others are stating publicly they will simply vote for John McCain.

Not all of them will follow through, for some it is an empty threat, but if even a quarter of them do follow through, then it is the nightmare scenario that Democratic party leaders have stated they feared months ago.

May 6, 2008 is coming fast and Barack Obama has the delegate lead which is a major problem for the Democratic leaders as well as the superdelegates.

This Wright controversy has badly damaged Barack Obama in the Democratic contest for the nomination of the party and if it can do that kind of harm to him in this contest, the superdelegates have to be asking themselves right about now, how badly this will hurt Obama in the general election campaign if they should give him the nod.

On the other hand, with his lead in delegates, if they do not give him the nod, Obama supporters will be outraged and feel betrayed by the party as a whole.

This is what is called....being between a rock and hard place.

[Update] Hot Air points out a Rasmussen report as well which shows even worse news for Obama.


Fifty-four percent (54%) of New Hampshire voters say it’s at least Somewhat Likely that Obama shares some of Pastor Wright’s controversial views about the United States. That figure includes 73% of Republicans, 55% of unaffiliated voters, and 36% of Democrats.

Most voters (56%) say Obama denounced Wright because it was politically convenient. Only 33% believe he was truly outraged.

Read the rest at Hot Air.