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Monday, January 07, 2008

Hillary Has Reason To Worry

[Update below]

The latest polls don't look good for Hillary in New Hampshire, she has been forced to bus people in from out of state just to pack her audience, Bill Clinton cannot even draw a crowd in the state that revived his presidential campaign in 1992, and her own advisers understand that her campaign is in trouble and haven't a clue on how to stop Obama's momentum.

Starting with the polls,USA TODAY/Gallup Poll has Obama leading Clinton in New Hampshire by 13 points and rising, with Obama at 41% and Clinton at 28%.

That is followed up by the CNN-WMUR poll, found Sunday which has Obama with a 10 point lead over Clinton.

Last but not least the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll has Obama at 39% and Clinton at 29%, in a poll released just this morning.

The numbers, the comparison with the previous polls done by the same organizations, all draw a picture of a campaign in trouble and her advisers admit that they do not know how to stop Obama's rise, nor her fall, according to The Politico, which quotes a Clinton adviser who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

In Iowa, Clinton aides have said she drew levels of support that might have been enough to win in an ordinary year, but she was swamped in the stunning turnout produced by Obama’s popularity among young voters. While taking pains to insist in public that New Hampshire’s turnout model is very different from Iowa’s, Clinton’s aides say privately that they still fear a similar wave on Tuesday.

“It’s still possible to win or take a close second in New Hampshire, but if the turnout even begins to mirror what happened in Iowa, all bets are off,” said a Clinton adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The adviser added that the campaign has come to accept another reality of the early process, which is that African-American voters are convinced that Obama is viable and shifting rapidly in his direction.

“We’re going to lose South Carolina,” he said.

Furthermore, at a recent rally at Nashua High School, Clinton drew a large crowd, just as Obama did in the same location. The only difference was many of Clinton's crowd were from Massachusetts and others were bussed in by the Clinton campaign and were not even New Hampshire voters.

Julia Fuchs, 65 and a recent graduate student, was one of those bussed in from New York and she stated "We are crazy about her. We came here to stump for her, they told me where to go. The campaign paid for everything."

New Hampshire is the state that "revived" Bill Clinton in 1992, according to the New York Times, yet when he gave a speech at the University of New Hampshire on Friday, he did so with rows of empty seats and people even got up and left midspeech.

The NYT describes a similiar "listless aura" in Rochester and in Bow, NH, at a highschool gym where only a third of the capacity of the room showed to listen to him.

Th headlines alone seem to be telling the story of the rise of Barck Obama in the Democratic campaign for Presidency at the same times as they portray Hillary Clinton's downward spiral that seems to be out of control.

Just today I see those headlines over at memeorandum, "In New Hampshire, Bill Clinton Finds Less Spark" blares the New York Times, "Poll: Obama Jumps Ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire" says CNN, "Obama Up By 13 Points, McCain Up by 4in USAT/Gallup Poll in N.H.", declares USA Today, then The Politico asks "Can You Win On Dull", and the Reuters Headline states "Obama Rockets PastClinton in New Hampshire", and these are just  small sample of the headlines I am seeing over the last couple of days.

The Clinton campaign seems to be in trouble and their best hope is that the Obama "movement" as some have called it will fade, and that Hillary Clinton can capitalize on Bill Clinton's popularity, but neither of those scenarios are happening as of now and there is no guarantee that either hope will be realized.

[Update] Rumors running rampant!!!!! Drudge claims Hillary exiting?