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Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Congressional Battleground NPR Poll Shows Serious Trouble For Democrats In 2010 Elections

Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies conducted a poll using "likely voters" and focusing on 70 specific districts where the incumbent party is vulnerable.

I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress this year, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE)?

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The results are concerning for Democrats, factoring in enthusiasm between Republican voters and Democratic voters and dissatisfaction with job performance.


Question asked was "As you may know, there will be an election for your representative to Congress in November this year. Do you think you will definitely vote to re-elect [your incumbent House representative] to Congress, probably vote to re-elect [your incumbent House representative], probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else?"

For the Democratic incumbent, 34 percent would voted to reelect a Democrat to the seat while 46 percent would choose someone else and 19 percent listed as other.

For Republican incumbents those numbers are quite different with 49 percent saying they would reelect a Republican, 37 percent saying someone else and 14 percent listed as other.

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Job performance

Pollsters offered two statements and asked likely voters to choose one.

Option #1: I WON'T vote to re-elect [my incumbent House representative] because we need new people who will fix Washington and get things done.

Option #2: I WILL vote to re-elect [my incumbent House representative] because [he or she] is doing a good job and addressing issues that are important to us.

Overall 52 percent said they would not reelect their incumbent and 40 percent said they would, the contrast here comes when the answers are separated between Democratically controlled districts and Republican controlled districts.

In Democratic districts 36 percent of likely voters said they would reelect their incumbent representative and 56 percent saying they would not reelect their incumbent.

In Republican districts 52 percent said they would reelect their incumbent with 36 percent saying they would not.

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The media has often portrayed the atmosphere going into the November 2010 elections as "anti-incumbent" but as these numbers show, the atmosphere seems to be anti-Democratic incumbent with Republican incumbents doing far better.

NPR article regarding this poll found here. NPR summary found here.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner executive summary and key findings found here.

PDF of full survey found here and PDF of graphs found here.