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Monday, June 21, 2010

GOP Has Highest Party Advantage Ever Measured In Midterm Election Poll

Gallup reports the GOP have the highest party advantage ever measured for any party in midterm election polling, since Gallup started polling the question in 1994.

The highest measure ever was in 2006, for Democrats as the graph above shows and Gallup breaks everything down:

Republicans' net score of +14 more enthusiastic in the latest poll compared with the Democrats' net score of -21 represents the largest relative party advantage Gallup has measured in a single midterm election-year poll. More generally, Republicans have shown a decided relative advantage in enthusiasm throughout 2010, averaging a net score of +28, compared with Democrats' net score of 0.

The Democrats have months to turn this around, but recent news, including but not limited to; the Obama administration publicly announcing they will sue Arizona over an immigration law that the majority of Americans support; a perceived lack of adequate response to the BP oil spill; the runaway spending congress and the president continue to pile on to when our debt has risen to all time highs by the government's own figures, the continued dissatisfaction by Independents over the way Obamacare was passed and the bill itself, and many other counterproductive news stories for the Democrats, make the possibility of Democrats turning this type of enthusiasm gap around, highly unlikely.

Congressional Disapproval

With Democrats in control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, averages (via RCP) showing disapproval for their job performance at all time lows, 72.5 percent, do not bode well for them coming into the November 2010 election year.

Individual polling done by Associated Press/GfK and another done by CBS News, both have that disapproval figure higher, at 73 percent and 77 percent respectively.

Generic Congressional Ballots

In Generic Congressional ballot polls, done by Gallup and Rasmussen, all show Republicans with higher figures when asked to chose Democrat or Republican. Rasmussen being the highest with a 10 point advantage and Rasmussen being the one that polls "likely voters" and not just American adults.

Direction Of The Country

According to individual polls done by Associated Press/GfK, ABC News/Wash Post and Rasmussen Reports, the majority by no less than 60 percent and as high as 67 percent, believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, over a year after the Democrats took control of the White as well as being in control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Factoring in all of the above, it is not only possible but very likely, that the typical gains for the party not in power (GOP) will expand to the point where the GOP may take control of the House of Representatives, depriving Barack Obama of the rubber stamp congress he has enjoyed so far to enact his political agenda even when the majority of Americans speak out against individual portions of that agenda.

Handicapper's Projections for November 2010 Midterms

Political handicapper Charlie Cook estimates a 30 to 40 seat loss for House Democrats in November, and further states "My gut tells me that Democrats will end up losing a few more than 40."

Political handicapper Alan I. Abramowitz estimates a 39 seat loss for House Democrats in November and concludes "Democrats are in a stronger position to defend their majority in the House of Representatives today than they were in 1994 because a larger proportion of their seats are in strongly Democratic districts and they have fewer open seats to defend. However, if the national GOP tide turns out to be as strong this year as it was in 1994, Republicans would have a reasonable chance of regaining control of the House with a very narrow majority."

Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics projects a 50 seat loss for House Democrats in Novermber stating "The bottom line is that Democrats are on pace for an ugly November. They're increasingly running out of time to change the dynamic, and it looks about as likely that things will get worse as that they will get better. If the elections were held today, the balance of the evidence suggests they would lose 50-60 seats. If you think the political environment will improve for Democrats, you can adjust your expectations accordingly, but if you think they will get worse, you can do the same."

Wake up America contributor, Paul Marston from The Marston Chronicles, one of the first to predict a Scott Brown, MA., win, projects a net 64-65 seat loss for House Democrats, stating "My predictions for the House are a gain of 67 seats but losing 2 for a net gain of 65, in an email this morning.

There is no doubt the GOP will pick up seats in November, the question is how many and whether the GOP can pick up enough to stop the rubber stamping of Obama's agenda until 2012 when the public will decide whether to reelect Obama or not.