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Saturday, March 20, 2010

It is Now Down to 10 Votes

It has all come down to these 10 members of the House whose votes will determine whether Obama care passes or not. There are some who voted no the first time and are under intense pressure from Speaker Pelosi to change their vote. She can make their life miserable and they know it. She can also cost them their seat in Congress if they vote yes and they know that, too. The others voted yes but for one reason or another are rethinking their position. At least 3 of these 10 must vote no to defeat the bill. You can e-mail any House member here but you must say you live in his or her district.

Things are so fluid right now that things are changing before we can finish the article. Matheson has just announced he is voting no. Then out of the blue, Zack Space decided he had better vote no this time to save his seat. Then DeFazio flipped to yes so that means we are back to needing two more votes. We had better hope that Lincoln Davis votes no once again and so does Glenn Nye to make sure this bill crashes and burns. Here is the scoop on all of them:
  1. Brian Baird (WA-3) - He voted no the first time but has decided not to seek re-election. The only workable approach is to urge him to respect the wishes of his constituents. His phone numbers are: 202-225-3536, fax is 202-225-3478.
  2. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3) - She represents the Erie, Pennsylvania area and voted yes the first time. She has a problem with the bill without the Stupak language on abortions. The latter is the key to getting her to vote no. Her phone numbers are: 202-225-5406 and fax is 202-225-3103.
  3. Lincoln Davis (TN-4) - Remind him that McCain-Palin carried his district by a whopping 29.81% margin so this is no time to play cutesy and hard to pin down. Tell him to do the right thing and just vote no like he did last time. His phone number is 202-225-6831 and fax is 202-226-5172.
  4. Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) - Explain that you can understand why he voted for the bill the first time since it had the Stupak amendment in it. Since this bill does not have it your conscience will not let you support someone who votes for this bill without it. Add that you know a lot of people who feel the same way and given his meager 3.25% margin last time, you are afraid he will lose if he votes yes. His numbers are 202-225-6511 and the fax is 202-225-0764. The danger is that he could well defect like Carney did.
  5. Marcy Kaptur (OH-9) - She should easily get re-elected so there is no handle there. She voted yes the first time and is likely to do so again. Still you can try to persuade her at 202-225-4146 or fax her at 202-225-7711.
  6. Jim Matheson (UT-2) - It is hard to imagine a congressman from a Mormon state like Utah voting for this bill. Still it would not hurt to tell him you are behind him 100% for his first no vote and urge him to do so again. Phones are 202-225-3011, fax 202-225-5638. Just announced that he is a no vote so we need one less.
  7. Alan Mollohan (WV-1) - He voted yes the first time and it caused a firestorm and put his re-election in doubt when it should have been a slam dunk. Tell him that health care is a deal breaker for you and he needs to vote no. Phones are 202-225-4172 and fax is 202-225-7564. Remind him that McCain-Palin carried his district by 15.26%.
  8. Glenn Nye (VA-2) - Glenn was smart enough to vote against this turkey the first time because his 4.94% margin would vanish in a year like this one. Now Pelosi wants him to fall on his sword for the Party.Tell him that Pelosi does not know beans about what a competitive district is like. He should hang in there or else he will wind up hanging himself. Phone is 202-225-4215, fax is 202-225-4218. His vote is virtually a must to stop this bill.
  9. Solomon Ortiz (TX-27) - This is a tough one because he voted yes the first time and is likely to do so again. The best approach is to tell him that James Duerr is just waiting for him to vote yes so he can crucify him for it. Phones are 202-225-7742, fax 202-226-1134.
  10. John Tanner (TN-8) - He voted no the first time but has decided not to seek re-election. The only workable approach is to urge him to respect the wishes of his constituents. His phone numbers are: 202-225-4714, fax is 202-225-1765.
As you can see Kaptur and Ortiz will likely vote yes. Kanjorski is being pulled by Carney's defection when he was a solid no but if Dahlkemper votes no, he might follow her as all three of them are from Pennsylvania. Baird and Tanner are weak because they are not running for re-election. While we probably will have Davis and Matheson, we need at least one more vote. The best bet is Nye because he voted no the first time and then Dahlkemper and Mollohan in that order. All of this assumes that everyone else breaks the way they have announced or are leaning. However, nothing is ever certain in politics until the roll call vote is closed.