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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Initial Obamacare Bounce Gone

Polls conducted the day of or the day after Obamacare was signed into law showed a slight bounce in public opinion and were touted by proponents of Obamacare as a "sign" that the public was losing their opposition and would come to favor the plan that was passed by Democrats against the majority of Americans being opposed to it.

A week later, that bounce Obamacare enjoyed is gone, like it never existed and poll numbers are back to the original figures.

Example, USA Today was one of the initial polls that showed the bounce with 49%-40% plurality, a week ago, called the bill "a good thing.

Now- 50% call passage of the bill "a bad thing" and 47% say it was "a good thing."

"There was on the Democratic side a burst of enthusiasm after it passed saying, 'Ah, now voters are being won over,' " says Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who studies polling. "The cumulating data this past seven days says that, no, a miracle didn't happen and the public didn't suddenly change their views on this. It means that the Democrats still face a tough sell of a public close to evenly divided on this and even slightly more opposed than in favor, and that difficulty didn't go away with passage."

A one-day poll taken immediately after a major event is subject not only to sampling error but also to very short-term effects, he says. On the day after the bill passed, he notes, "the news cycle was dominated by the positive side of the story and only a bit by the Republicans' rebuttal to that."

In the new survey, a slightly higher percentage of opponents say the vote will have a major impact on their choice in November's congressional elections: 31% say they are much more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes the bill; 25% say they are much more likely to vote for a candidate who supports it.

More from Gallup on this poll.

Obamacare related:

Clyburn: Reid's dealmaking cost Mass. seat

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's dealmaking lost a key seat in Massachusetts but eventually led to the right strategy to win the vote on landmark healthcare legislation, U.S. House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn said Monday.

Clyburn said the election of Republican Scott Brown to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat was a turning point in passing the overhaul last week. He said at the time, the Senate was pursuing a 60-vote strategy for the legislation to get around filibuster threats by Republicans.

To get there, Reid made several deals with lawmakers, including giving up the public option on insurance and giving $100 million in extra Medicaid money solely to Nebraska to help win support from that state's Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson. Dubbed the Cornhusker Kickback, it was eliminated in the revisions bill, but had caused a stir over such backroom deals that the Republicans pointed out.

"So he got 60 votes. Well, the problem is the Nebraska thing, more than anything else, caused the defeat up in Massachusetts," Clyburn said.

Pro-Life Democrats Who Switched Vote for Health Bill Request Billions in Earmarks

The 11 House Democrats led by Rep. Bart Stupak who dropped their opposition to health care reform mere hours before the final vote have requested $3.4 billion in earmarks -- and one watchdog group wants to know whether the money represents business as usual, or a political payoff.

Your must read piece of the day below:

Gallup crumble: ObamaCare underwater again, GOP surges on generic ballot