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Monday, March 29, 2010

The Next Scott Brown?

Many of you may remember that we were the first ones to alert you to the possibility of electing Scott Brown in Massachusetts way before the first poll came out. That race was ignored by all the political pundits because obviously a Republican could not possibly get elected in the most Democrat state in the union to fill the Ted Kennedy vacancy. Well, here is another one for you and the election is two weeks away on April 13th. This special election is also on no one's radar because obviously the Democrat candidate will win. That is the conventional wisdom among the pundits. Well, it might be conventional but that does not make it wisdom any more than it did for Scott Brown.

This election is being held in Florida in congressional district 19. This is just as tough as Massachusetts was and probably even more so. If the Republican candidate, Edward Lynch, does not get some support and money immediately, the conventional wisdom will be right. People, this race is doable because the health care bill is still fresh in everyone's minds especially in Florida where it is extremely unpopular right along with its major supporter. The Democrat candidate has this little gem on his website:

Dear Friends, Last night, Congress made history by passing health care reform legislation that expands access to affordable coverage to 32 million more Americans. When President Obama signs this historic reform bill into law, the residents of Florida's 19th district will immediately begin to reap its benefits.

The Republican candidate has this to say about that:

First, let me state that I do believe that we need to make sure that every LEGAL American citizen has access to the best healthcare system in the world and that it is affordable for everyone. Let me also state that, after reading the bills that are being considered, if the healthcare plan was a good plan, I would let you know that. That being said, the proposals set forth in the house (HR 3200) and in the senate are very bad for America...

Given that this district has double the national average of senior citizens in it and in Florida those same citizens are opposed to Obama Care by a 65-25 margin, all we can say is: CHARGE. Send money right now to If you live in Southern Florida's east coast, go here: Obviously the national Democrats did not get the message Massachusetts sent them so let's send them another one from Florida. Here is everything you need to know about this district:

Florida 19 House District

Sen Ted Deutch
Democrat Sen. Ted Deutch
Edward Lynch
Republican Edward Lynch (foreground)

Florida 19 House District

Representative Wexler had represented this district since 1996 when he resigned this year to take another post. He did get a 38.93% margin in 2008 while McCain-Palin lost this district by a 31.5% margin. No Republican has ever been elected in this district since it was created in 1982. Under ordinary circumstances this district would be hopeless for Republicans and would not really be in play next November either. The fact that there is a special election on April 13th coming right on top of the passage of Obama Care says that these are no ordinary circumstances. Republicans always turn out much better than Democrats in special elections.

Almost one-third of the adult population in this district are 65 or older and they are very annoyed about Obama Care passing according to a poll taken by
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. An article in the Miami Herald entitled Florida poll: Healthcare law hurts Obama, Democrats says this:

Only 34 percent of Florida voters support the new law while 54 percent are against it, according to the poll. Opposition is significantly strong among two crucial blocs: those older than 65 and voters with no party affiliation. Seniors disfavor the bill by a 65-25 percent margin, while independents oppose the law 62-34.

The poll, conducted last week, is the first to be taken in Florida since Obama signed the healthcare reform bill into law.

It shows that Floridians have a more negative than positive view of Obama by a margin of 15 percentage points. And they oppose his so-called ``cap-and-trade'' global warming legislation as well as the new healthcare law.

This being the case, this district is suddenly very definitely in play although we still have to rate it as only possible if the Republican candidate gets a lot of support and money very soon.

The Republican primary for this special election has chosen this candidate:

Ed Lynch (R) - Building Contractor & '08 Nominee

His website is Edward Lynch for Congress.

Leans D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Ratings for This District

Nov 04, 2008

Robert Wexler(I)

Edward Lynch

Benjamin Graber
Nov 07, 2006

Robert Wexler(I)
Nov 02, 2004

Robert Wexler(I)
Last 3 Election Results

Here are the demographics for this District:

Cities in Florida 19
Cities in Florida 19
State District 65 or Older
Black Latino HS Grad
Coll 4Yr
Median HH Income
Poverty Level
United States

16.7% 74.3% 12.3% 15.1% 84.5% 27.4% 52,175 13.2%
19 32.8% 79.6% 10.7% 18.0% 88.4% 30.3% 51,018 9.1%