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Saturday, March 27, 2010

Illinois 11th Congressional District

Many have asked us what they can do now to help elect Republicans in November. As a practical matter, we have to wait until the Republican candidate is chosen in a primary election. Fortunately, Illinois has already held a primary election and Texas has held the first round with any required runoff races to be held on April 13th. We will only look at races where we feel the Republican candidate has a decent chance of beating the Democrat incumbent.

Illinois has four competitive races against Democrat incumbents so we will look at another of those today:

Illinois 11th House District

Rep Debbie Halvorson
Democrat Rep. Debbie Halvorson
Adam Kinzinger photo
Republican Adam Kinzinger












IL-11
Illinois 11th Congressional District

Representative Halvorson carried this district by a 23.92% margin in 2008 while McCain-Palin were losing by an 8.18% margin. The former Republican incumbent, Gerald C. "Jerry" Weller, retired in 2008. He had represented this district since 1994. Due to the high margin and the McCain-Palin loss, we cannot give it more than an outside chance since it would take a year like 1994 to overcome those factors. Rep. Halvorson has made it easier by voting for both health care bills. As you can see from the poll below, the Republican candidate is doing far better than the mathematical odds would predict.

The Republican primary has already been held in Illinois so the Republican candidate is:

Adam Kinzinger (R) - Ex-McLean County Commissioner & Iraq War Veteran

His website is Adam Kinzinger for U.S. Congress

ILLINOIS 11 RESULTS
Sample Size 804
Democrat Debbie Halvorson 30.22%
Republican Adam Kinzinger 42.04%
Unsure 26.99%
We Ask America Poll Results on 3/18/10

MARGIN
OBAMA
MARSTON
CQ POL COOK
ROTHENBERG
23.92%
8.18%
Leans D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Ratings for This District

Nov 04, 2008

Debbie Halvorson
185,652
58.40%

Marty Ozinga
109,608
34.48%

Jason Wallace
22,635
7.12%
Nov 07, 2006

Gerald C. "Jerry" Weller(I)
109,009
55.10%

John Pavich
88,846
44.90%
Nov 02, 2004

Gerald C. "Jerry" Weller(I)
173,057
58.67%

Tari Renner
121,903
41.33%
Last 3 Election Results

Here are the demographics for this District:

Cities in Illinois 11
Cities in Illinois 11
tate District 65 or Older
White
Black Latino HS Grad
Coll 4Yr
Median HH Income
Poverty Level
United States

16.7% 74.3% 12.3% 15.1% 84.5% 27.4% 52,175 13.2%
Illinois
11 14.9% 85.1% 8.3% 10.3% 88.0% 21.4% 58,652 9.9%