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Thursday, March 25, 2010

Bart Makes a Big Boo-Boo

MI-1
Michigan 1st House District





Representative Stupak carried this district by a 32.3% margin in 2008 while McCain-Palin were losing it by 1.82%. Ordinarily this would make this a safe district. But that was before Rep. Stupak made a cause out of preventing federal funding of abortions in the Obama care bill. Having made a strong case he then sold out his principles for a useless piece of paper and made himself vulnerable because he has now alienated both sides of the abortion debate. Because he made himself out to be pro-life, he attracted a pro-abortion Democrat lady to run against him in the primary. He already had Republican opposition but when he gave into Pelosi and Obama, he infuriated the conservatives by his betrayal who will now fund his Republican opposition.

Rep. Stupak apparently figured that he had more to worry from a left wing Democrat in the primary than he had to worry about any Republican challenger. In this he made a huge mistake for now everyone will be funding his opposition albeit for far different reasons. This is what happens when a politician tries to play both ends against the middle. He had a safe district but he was so busy looking over his left shoulder at the Democrat opponent he neglected to look over his right shoulder to see the Republicans gaining on him after he energizing them to the maximum. We can only give the Republicans the lowest possible chance in the quite possible bets group at this time but that may well change soon.

Several Republicans agree with this assessment and are vying for this seat according to politics1.com:

Dan Benishek (R) - Surgeon & GOP Activist
Linda Goldthorpe (R) - Attorney, Ron Paul Campaign Activist & '08 Candidate
Don Hooper (R) - Retired Businessman, Army Veteran & Frequent Candidate
Dennis Lennox (R) - Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner, Non-Profit Group Executive, Ex-State Legislative Aide & Pro-Life Activist


MARGIN
OBAMA
MARSTON
CQ POL COOK
ROTHENBERG
#19.16%
1.82%
D toss-up
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Ratings for This District

Nov 04, 2008

Bart Stupak(I)
213,216
65.04%

Tom Casperson
107,340
32.74%

Jean Treacy
2,669
0.81%

Dan Grow
2,533
0.77%

Joshua J. Warren
2,070
0.63%

Don Hooper (W)
8
0.00%
Nov 07, 2006

Bart Stupak(I)
180,396
69.42%

Don Hooper
72,728
27.99%

Joshua J. Warren
2,274
0.88%

David J. Newland
2,250
0.87%

Kenneth L. Proctor
2,195
0.84%
Nov 02, 2004

Bart Stupak(I)
211,571
65.57%

Don Hooper
105,706
32.76%

David J. Newland
3,105
0.96%

John W. Loosemore
2,292
0.71%
Last 3 Election Results

Here are the demographics for this District:

Cities in Michigan 1
Cities in Michigan 1
State District 65 or Older
White
Black Latino HS Grad
Coll 4Yr
Median HH Income
Poverty Level
United States

16.7% 74.3% 12.3% 15.1% 84.5% 27.4% 52,175 13.2%
Michigan
1 22.9% 93.5% 1.3% 1.1% 87.6% 16.3% 40,243 14.4%