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Monday, September 08, 2008

Gallup: McCain 4 Point Lead Among Registered Voters, 10 Points With Likely Voters

The convention bounces now accounted for, Gallup shows McCain/Palin with a four percentage point lead among registered voters and a 10 point lead among likely voters, which are voters that Gallup believes are most like to turn up and vote.
The USA Today/Gallup Poll for September 8, 2008, the first conducted with interviews all conducted after both conventions were completed, shows John McCain and Sarah Palin holding a four point lead over Barack Obama and Joe Biden with 50 percent to 46 percent.

The polls conducted before either convention had begun had the race tied at 45 percent to 45 percent.

Among those Gallup feels are "likely voters", those who will actually turn out to vote, Mccain/Palin's lead stretches to a ten point lead, with 54 percent to 44 percent.

This difference between likely voters and registered voters indicates that if the election were held today, McCain would benefit from a differential advantage over the Democrats in terms of those voters actually likely to turn out and vote -- as has often been typical of recent presidential elections.

Obama still holds the enthusiasm gap with 67 percent saying they are enthused about their candidate and 60 percent saying the same for McCain.

The enthusiasm gap for Obama last week showed a 19 point lead which has "dwindled" according to Gallup to seven points, while McCain's enthusiasm level was at 42 percent a week ago, it is now at 60 percent, which is an 18 point jump in the last week.

Gallup credits the selection of Sarah Palin with a certain amount of enthusiasm as they questioned respondents about her speech given at the Republican convention for which 42 percent said it was "excellent", 18 percent listed it as "good", 14 percent listed it as "okay", seven percent said "poor" and 7 percent listed it as terrible.

The bounces and rebound bounces are fully accounted for now.

The choice of Sarah Palin for John McCain has made this a whole new horse race folks and the RCP poll averages shows McCain with a 2.1 percent lead over Barack Obama.

Survey USA now states that more Americans now believe John McCain will win in November, with 49 to 44 percent.

[Update] Gallup in a separate poll has McCain up 5 instead of the 4 listed in the USA Today/Gallup joint poll.