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Thursday, August 05, 2010

Generic Ballot Average at New High for Republicans

Likely Voter Congressional Generic Ballot Average
Poll Date Sample Dems Reps Spread
MC Average 7/9 - 8/1 -- 39.5 49.0 Republicans +9.5
Democracy Corps (D) 7/26 - 7/29 1000 LV 41 52 Republicans +11
Rasmussen Reports 7/26- 8/1 3500 LV 38 46 Republicans +8

This translates to an unbelievable net gain of 83 seats for the Republicans for a 261 to 174 margin. Since the current margin is 257 to 178 in favor of the Democrats, this would not only return control to the Republicans but flip the House to give the Republicans a larger margin than the Democrats have now. Even the RCP average is at 6 in favor of the Republicans and they include registered voter polls. Our average of such polls shows 6.71 because we include a Democracy Corps poll of likely voters that they are ignoring. A 6 point average would gain the Republicans a net gain of 51 seats on the 6.71 average would give them a 55 net gain.

We will have to see if this holds up over the next few weeks. For the time being we are going with a likely voter generic average of 8.0 and a 65 seat net gain. We were at 64 seats but are moving IN-2 from Democrat toss-up to Republican toss-up today. See for the details.