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Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Gallup Reports Loss Of Independent Support For Obama


Thirty-eight percent of independents approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, the first time independent approval of Obama has dropped below 40% in a Gallup Daily tracking weekly aggregate. Meanwhile, Obama maintains the support of 81% of Democrats, and his job approval among Republicans remains low, at 12%.

Independents were the tipping point for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential elections. They threw him over the top to win but less than two years into his presidency, Independents are abandoning him in droves.

What a drop in Independent support means for November 2010 elections

With the fate of the control of Congress on the line and whether it stays within Democratic control or Republicans take the 39 seats needed to wrest control of the House away from the Democrats, there is a correlation between presidential disapproval/dissatisfaction and the amount of seats generally lost during midterms and Independents are a large voting bloc, larger than ever before.

As we reported on July 1, 2010, via another Gallup poll, Republicans are holding a 10 percentage point lead over Democrats in polling for the 2010 elections.

One of the primary reasons listed in that poll was "dissatisfaction with Obama".

At this point, dissatisfaction with Obama appears to be a reason independents favor the Republican Party this year. Since March, 42% of independent registered voters, on average, have approved of the job Obama is doing as president, while 51% have disapproved....

The kicker:

Independent voters who disapprove of Obama's job performance say by 71% to 12% that they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district if the election were held today. In contrast, independent voters who approve of Obama favor the Democratic candidate, but by a smaller 63% to 17% margin.

It looks like Democrats are heading straight into the perfect storm come November.

Named by Charlie Cook: Hurricane GOP