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Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Arkansas 2010 Senate Race: Latest Polling Shows Lincoln (D) Trails Boozeman (R) By 19 Points

According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln is trailing her Republican challenger, John Boozman, by 19 points, 54 percent to 35 percent, in a race that pundits have been watching carefully and Republicans believe could be a prime opportunity to pick up another Senate seat in the November 2010 elections.

"There's a general incumbent backlash and she hasn't been able to stave it off," Ipsos pollster Cliff Young said. It is still early, he said, "but in a relative sense she's not in a good position."

This Reuters/Ipsos poll is simply the latest one showing Boozman ahead of Lincoln, who saw her numbers drop heavily during the Obamacare debate to which she became very visible and has not recovered from.


Lincoln, who is seeking a third term in the Senate, was reelected in 2004 with 56% of the vote. But she has been struggling politically at home since late last year following her procedural vote that kept the national health care bill alive in the Senate.

Voters in Arkansas have consistently opposed the health care bill more strongly than voters in much of the rest of the country. Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters in the state now favor repeal of the health care bill, while 30% oppose repeal. This includes 57% who Strongly Favor repeal and 20% who are Strongly Opposed.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of the much-larger group that Strongly Favors repeal support Boozman, a U.S. congressman who, like all Republicans, voted against the health care bill. Sixty-two percent (62%) of those who Strongly Oppose repeal back Lincoln.

Rasmussen has Lincoln down by 29.

A recently published Talk Business Poll places Lincoln 25 points behind Boozman, with Boozman generating 57 percent and Lincoln 32 percent.

Talk Business previously gave analysis of the Lincoln/ Boozman matchup:

All polling data from last summer to last month indicates general election dissatisfaction for Lincoln. Head-to-head match-ups show Boozman with a comfortable lead over the Democratic incumbent. Independent voters are largely dissatisfied with Lincoln and have indicated a propensity to side with Republicans in the current political climate.

Lincoln's big pivot to the left in the Democratic primary with her acknowledgment of her swing vote in the health care debate, her support for the stimulus package and her embrace of Pres. Barack Obama (who has underwhelming support in Arkansas) will hurt her with independent Arkansas voters in the fall. Republicans will remind voters of this alliance with gusto and Lincoln should count on little to no support from any crossover votes this November.

While Lincoln is referred to as a "moderate" Democrat, her voting history shows she has voted with the Democratic party 84.1 percent of the time during the current congress.