By an average 10 percentage-point margin since March, 45% to 35%, independent registered voters have consistently preferred the Republican to the Democrat when asked which congressional candidate they would vote for in their district. Independents' preference for Republicans has been generally consistent over this time, with the gap in favor of Republicans increasing slightly since March, from 8 to 12 points.
One of the major reasons for Independents favoring Republicans: Barack Obama
At this point, dissatisfaction with Obama appears to be a reason independents favor the Republican Party this year. Since March, 42% of independent registered voters, on average, have approved of the job Obama is doing as president, while 51% have disapproved. (This is a slightly more negative assessment than is true for all independents, among whom 44% approve and 45% disapprove of Obama.)
Independent voters who disapprove of Obama's job performance say by 71% to 12% that they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district if the election were held today. In contrast, independent voters who approve of Obama favor the Democratic candidate, but by a smaller 63% to 17% margin.