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Saturday, September 06, 2008

Gallup Confirms CBS And Rasmussen Polls, Obama's 'Bounce" Evaporating

Yesterday two polls were quoted showing that Barack Obama's convention bounce had evaporated, with one showing a tie between Mccain and Obama and the other showing a one percent lead enjoyed by Obama. Gallup confirms Obama's convention bounce almost gone.
It was reported yesterday that Obama's eight point convention bounce according to CBS had leveled out within a week, showing McCain and Obama tied with 42 percent each and Rasmussen showing Obama retaining a one point lead, with neither of the polls fully indicative of the full Republican convention bounce, which wasn't expected to be fully reported until Monday or Tuesday of next week.

Today Gallup has issued their report saying, "Barack Obama's advantage over John McCain has been shrinking since the start of the Republican National Convention, and is now down to just two percentage points -- 47% to 45% -- too close to call."

Gallup reports that these new numbers only "partially" reflect public opinion of Wednesday and Thursday of the Republican Convention where Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and John McCain gave their speeches. The continue on to indicate "This includes a strong night for McCain in Friday's interviewing, the first full night of interviewing following his acceptance speech."

The first Gallup Poll Daily tracking report based on interviewing conducted entirely after McCain's speech (from Friday through Sunday) will be published on Monday. The test for McCain will be whether he can do more than return the race to the absolute tie seen at the beginning of the convention period, and actually lead Obama by a significant margin for the first time since late April/early May

It will not be evident as Gallup noted in the quote above, how much of a bounce the McCain/Palin campaign will see at its fullest, but does show the pattern that both CBS and Rasmussen expressed in their reports from yesterday and the day before.

By Monday I will not be surprised to see McCain/Palin leading above the margin of error percentages after such strong showings as well as record breaking amounts of viewers for their speeches.

Expect attacks on Palin to get more vitriolic and nasty despite the fact that the previous ones have backfired resoundingly.