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Friday, June 27, 2008

TIME Magazine Poll Shows Tight Race Between John McCain and Barack Obama

In the latest TIME Magazine poll they show that as the two presumptive presidential candidates enter the general election campaign phase, the race is tight.
The TIME Magazine poll was conducted from June 19 to June 25, 2008 and it shows Barack Obama with 43 percent and John McCain with 38 percent.

It also shows that among undecided voters, 30 percent lean toward John McCain while 20 percent leaned towards Obama and 46 percent stating no preference.

When TIME added those figures into the mix they found Obama's lead narrowed to just 4 percent.

Interestingly, in the first paragraph of the article TIME states, "The poll shows Obama gaining only a slight bounce from Hillary Clinton's departure from the campaign early this month, " yet in the third paragraph they seem to contradict the bounce by pointing out that Obama's lead over McCain is narrower now that it was during their poll conducted in February, before Clinton suspended her campaign, which had Obama at 48 percent and McCain at 41 percent, including leaners.

The contrast between those two statements is not explained in the article itself.

As they break down the results they found that Obama led McCain with Latino voters, 51 percent to 34 percent and McCain leads Obama with Catholics, 57 percent to 43 percent.

Independents are split between the candidates with Obama holding a 1 percent lead, but Obama does better with women voters and is more likable than McCain.

McCain holds a 20 point lead on the question of who "would best protect the U.S. against terrorism," with 53 percent to 33 percent.

On the issue of handling the war in Iraq, again McCain comes out ahead with 48 percent and Obama with 38 percent.

Obama leads though on economy with 44 percent to McCain's 37 percent and tackling special interest groups goes to Obama with 46 percent compared to McCain's 31 percent.

Even more interesting is that Obama leads McCain in all age groups, specifically the younger group of 18-34, yet McCain leads Obama in all income level brackets, save the poorest.

Despite all the drama over Obama's church and his former pastor's inflammatory remarks, 40% said they felt he was more comfortable talking about his religious beliefs versus 34% for McCain. And in evidence that McCain has some work to do shoring up social conservative voters, when asked which of the candidates "is closest to your views on so-called values issues, such as abortion and gay marriage," McCain edged out Obama by just a single percentage point 40% to 39%, even though 51% of respondents opposed gay marriage.

Tight is definitely the key word here where on specifics, each candidate has their strong suits and their weak points, and while character always plays a part in how voters end up making their selection process, the November election will hinge, for either candidate on issues, as it should be.

Barring either candidate doing what politicians do so well and shooting themselves in the foot that is.