Custom Search

Monday, January 23, 2012

Two Polls: Gingrich Ahead In Florida- He Should Send Coulter, Romney And Media Thank You Gifts

By Susan Duclos

[Update] Gallup Election 2012 Tracker shows Romney's 10 point lead from just three days ago, collapsed into a one point lead today. More- HERE. [End Update]

Just two days after Newt Gingrich took first place in the South Carolina primary, winning 43 of 46 counties, with a 12 percentage point plus lead over Mitt Romney who just earlier in the week enjoyed a 15 percentage point lead over Gingrich, two new Florida polls shows the Newt surge has followed him to Florida.

Rick Santorum and Ron Paul finished in third and fourth place, respectively in South Carolina.

An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research conducted for NEWSMAX puts Newt at 34.4 percent and Romney at 25.6 percent, Paul at 13.1 percent and Santorum at 10.7 percent, according to the PDF. Media seems to round up and down so the numbers being reported are Gingrich 34 percent, Romney 26 percent, Ron Paul has 13 percent, and Rick Santorum garners 11 percent.

The second poll, by Rasmussen, shows Gingrich with a nine point lead over Romney in Florida, with Newt at 41 percent, Romney 32 percent, Santorum 11 percent and Ron Paul with eight percent. Nine percent remain undecided.

Much like South Carolina, Newt has come from trailing Mitt Romney by double digits in the polls to jumping ahead, according the Rasmussen poll, two weeks ago Romney held a 22 point advantage over Newt Gingrich.

Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.

In response to Newt's surge in the polls and his resounding win in South Carolina, Romney and the Republican establishment are making the same mistake that the liberal media made in South Carolina the week of the primary voting, when they attempted to blindside Newt with an interview with his ex-wife who decided to air dirty laundry of a personal nature.

Newt's a fighter and he does not crouch and defend when he is attacked relentlessly, he acknowledges his flaws then goes straight for the knockout punch.

Newt's Rise

Lets take a look at possible reasons why Newt Gingrich's candidacy, which has been declared dead and resurrected more than once during this campaign season, is on the rise yet again in the polls.

Exit polling from the South Carolina primaries tell us quite a bit.

First off, let's give Newt his due.

He debates well, he pushes the conservative agenda UN-apologetically. He does not kowtow to the Obama media, which the majority of the country see as as biased, and more liberally biased by over 3 to 1 than conservatively biased, he punches them back, usually on live television during debates where all can see him doing it. He keeps his eye on the ball and he attacks Obama's record in every speech, debate and interview.

Those reasons are not the only ones that has helped Newt though, people like Ann Coulter, the Obama media and Mitt Romney himself have helped and they deserve their due as well.

Ann Coulter, by anyone's definition, would be considered a hard core, extreme right conservative, so when she attacks Newt Gingrich with statements like "with Newt Gingrich you throw out the baby but keep the bath water," it stands to reason that moderates are going assume that if Gingrich is not conservative enough for Coulter and company, he must not be an extremist.

Exit poll data shows that Gingrich received 31 percent of the moderate to liberal vote with Romney taking 34 percent. So, moderate to liberal Republicans see Romney as more liberal than Gingrich but thanks to people like Coulter, Newt is not seen as over-the-top conservative.

Newt should thank Ann for her help.

Romney should get credit as well for helping Newt. Using his latest attack as an example here, via The Politico:

Romney continued: “He was investigated over an ethics panel and had to make a payment associated with that and then his fellow Republicans, 88 percent of his Republicans voted to reprimand Speaker Gingrich. He has not had a record of successful leadership.”

First thing that encourages people who do not know the facts to do, was a Google search, because no one truly believes a campaigning politician will tell the full story.

Using keywords "Newt Gingrich Ethics investigation," up comes the Washington Post archived stories on the probe, where we see that 83 of the 84 ethics allegations filed by Democrats were dropped and Gingrich paid a fine on one charge and was reprimanded by Republicans.

Also in that search, Newt's Wiki page comes up and in that we see the Republican Revolution" of 1994, where Gingrich and several other Republicans came up with the "Contract with America", which led to the November 1994 elections seeing Republicans gaining 54 seats and took control of the House for the first time since 1954. Following Gingrich's first two years as House Speaker, the Republican majority was re-elected in the 1996 election, the first time Republicans had done so in 68 years, and the first time simultaneously with a Democratic president winning re-election.

Researching Romney's line of attacks gives as much or more positive information as negative on Gingrich when voters look up Gingrich's leadership abilities.

Add to that, instead of gracefully offering congratulations to Gingrich on the night of his South Carolina primary win, Romney came out, in what should have been his concession speech, and attacked Gingrich, looking more like a sore loser than a presidential candidate, while Gingrich's speech complimented each of the other candidates.

(See both speeches and the Paul and Santorum speeches- HERE.)

This goes back to the Exit Poll Data, where see that when respondents were asked "Who ran the most unfair campaign?, primary voters chose Romney's campaign against Gingrich with 58 percent.

Newt should thank Romney for his help.

Then we come to the Obama media's role in helping Gingrich rise again.

As South Carolina voters clearly showed by giving Newt two standing ovations during his last debate and handing him a huge win on primary night, they see, acknowledge and do not appreciate, the media attempting to influence their vote with last minute hit jobs and attempting to force the Romney is inevitable meme.

We know this by the second standing ovation Gingrich received after he called the debate moderator despicable for starting the debate with a question about an interview with Gingrich's ex-wife saying he wanted an open marriage, and Gingrich blasted the media and the moderator, ending by stating "I am tired of the elite media protecting Barack Obama by attacking Republicans."

Long lasting applause and the second standing ovation of the debate followed that remark and shows that conservative voters prefer a candidate that is willing to call the media out on their bias, their antics and their attempts to force their political desires on to voters.

Newt should thank the liberal media for their help.

Newt Gingrich should really send out some gift baskets to the Obama elite liberal media outlets, Ann Coulter and Mitt Romney, because they have all lifted his candidacy and helped him rise in the polls.

Florida debate schedule details:

January 23, 2012- 9pm ET/8pm CT and 9pm PT on NBCLive Stream (Live stream from 9pm to 10:30pm ET only)
Location: University of South Florida in Tampa, Florida
Sponsor: The Tampa Bay Times, NBC News, the National Journal and the Florida Council of 100
Participants: Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul

January 26, 2012- 8pm ET on CNN
Location: University of North Florida in Jacksonville, FL
Sponsor: CNN, CNN en EspaƱol, The Hispanic Leadership Network and The Republican Party of Florida
Participants: Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul

Florida Primary to be held on January 31, 2012.