The most recent, sponsored by Daily Kos and conducted by Research 2000, puts Burns ahead of Critz by 6 percentage points and the PPP poll, done a week earlier had Burns ahead by 3 percentage points.
Starting with the Research 2000 poll, some of the data shown gives hint of how the voter's are thinking going into the special election and it doesn't look good for Democrats.
Obama favorable rating is at 38 percent with 55 percent rating him unfavorably.
The two top questions are the most interesting.
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for Mark Critz, the Democrat, or Tim Burns, the Republican?
MARK CRITZ TIM BURNS UNDECIDED ALL 40 46 14 MEN 38 49 13 WOMEN 42 43 15 DEMOCRATS 64 21 15 REPUBLICANS 8 83 9 INDEPENDENTS 26 49 25 18-29 45 41 14 30-44 39 46 15 45-59 43 44 13 60+ 36 51 13 QUESTION: Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports and will work to improve the new health care reform law, or a candidate who will work to repeal it completely?
SUPPORTS REPEAL NOT SURE ALL 34 48 18 MEN 31 52 17 WOMEN 37 44 19 DEMOCRATS 55 21 24 REPUBLICANS 5 85 10 INDEPENDENTS 24 60 16
The interesting part of the PPP poll is the figures for Independents:
Both candidates are relatively popular. 45% of voters have a favorable opinion of Burns to 26% with an unfavorable one. For Critz it’s 41% who view him positively and 34% negatively. It’s rare to find a race these days where both candidates have a positive netfavorability rating.
Burns is winning thanks to an overwhelming lead with independents and because he’s
winning over far more Democrats than Critz is Republicans. Burns has a 51-31
advantage with voters who don’t identify with either party. He’s also winning over 22% of Democrats while Critz gets just 10% of Republicans.
It’s surprising the race is as close as it is given the way voters in the district feel about national Democrats. 57% of voters in the district disapprove of Barack Obama to only 33% who give him good marks. And when it comes to his health care bill just 28% of voters are supportive with 59% in opposition.
Much of the toxic atmosphere for Democrats rests squarely on Barack Obama's shoulders according to Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, who states "It’s going to be somewhat amazing if Mark Critz wins this race given the way voters inhis district feel about Barack Obama. His low ratings are something a long time incumbent like Murtha might have been able to weather, but you wouldn’t expect Democrats to win an open seat anywhere that gives Obama an approval rating under 40%. Still it remains a toss up with a month to go before the election."
Pennsylvania is definitely one to be watching on may 18, 2010.
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