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Monday, April 14, 2008

Middle America Tells Barack Obama What They Think Of His Words

Many reactions were shown after Barack Obama uttered the words that have been heard around the world now about "middle America" and how they "get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

I wrote about it here and then followed up with some reactions from around the blogosphere here.

Those reactions are one thing, but the reactions that count in this particular case, are the voters and the numbers don't look good for Barack Obama.

Democrats Mar

Clinton 52% 51% 45% 57%
Obama 41% 39% 45% 37%
Someone else 1% 2% 4% 2%
Undecided 6% 8% 6% 4%

In one week Obama went from being neck to neck with Hillary Clinton in the minds of Pennsylvania voters to being 20 percentage points behind Hillary Clinton.

That is a very large nose dive.

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 48% to 44% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 64% to 31%.

Clinton leads 64% to 29% among white voters (82% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 79% to 18% among African American voters (14% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Clinton leads 52% to 43% among voters age 18 to 49 (50% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 62% to 31% among voters age 50 and older.

10% of all likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 24% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

23% of likely Democratic primary voters say that excessive exposure to Obama's advertising is causing them to support Clinton.

That is not the only poll showing the reaction from the voters to Obama's words. Rasmussen shows that 56 percent of voters nationwide disagree with his assessment and his words.

As we have pointed out before, this reaction will be seen far stronger in the general election that it will in the Democratic primaries.

Forty-five percent (45%) say that Obama’s comments reflect an elitist view of small town voters. Thirty-seven percent (37%) disagree. Republicans overwhelmingly say that the statements are elitist and most Democrats disagree. Among unaffiliated voters, 40% say they represent an elitist view while 34% disagree.

The problem this leaves for the Democratic party as a whole is that Obama has the delegate lead over Hillary Clinton and when all is said and done, it will be the superdelegates that end up being the determining factor in which candidate will be nominated to run against John McCain in the general election in November.

Hillary's argument is that Obama will not stand as much of a chance as she will going into November against McCain and from the latest controversy surrounding Obama, with Rezko, his NAFTA debacle, the Jeremiah Wright issue and now his own words caught on audio about the "middle America" voters, she may have a point and it is something the superdelegates are going to have to seriously take into consideration.