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Monday, September 24, 2012

Dem Pollsters Say: Over Sampling Dems To Create Illusion Of Obama Momentum Is 'Utter Irresponsibility'

By Susan Duclos

According to two Democratic Pollsters, Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen, national polling has been over sampling Democrats in a manner they consider "utter irresponsibility" to create the artificial illusion of Obama momnetum for the upcoming presidential election.

The picture above shows the chart they referred to in discussing the Pew and Democracy Corps polls. In those polls mentioned, they surveyed a larger ratio of Democrats to Republicans among voters than there is believed to be among the likely voters this year. If one over-samples voters of either party over the other one this way, given 90 percent support of members of each party for their party's nominee, it likely results in a survey result that skews the poll by about that percentage in favor of that party's nominee.

“Are these polls an accurate reflection of the race today,” asked LeBoutillier.

Schoen responded, “The simple answer is no John. The bottom line is there were seven percent more Democrats in the electorate in 2008 than there were Republicans. That's from the exit polls and that's about as accurate as you can get...President Obama won by about seven points. Given 90 percent of Democrats vote for the Democrat and 90 percent of Republicans vote for the Republican, every time you reduce the margin between the parties by one point, roughly it's about one point off the margin.”

Schoen pointed out that the Pew poll was based on Democrats sampled for having an 11 percent voters registration edge over Republicans. He further added, “saying that America has gotten more Democratic than 2008, which is a questionable assumption.”

Schoen cited the latest Rasmussen poll having a 0.5 percent edge for Democrats over Republicans in voter registration and a four percent lead for Romney in contrast with the surveys that are over-sampling Democrats.

Caddell addressed the over-sampling of Democrats in the surveys, saying, “what you have is an act of utter irresponsibility, in my opinion, by the Pew Poll and the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.”

“They shouldn't be running these...(they) are having an effect on this election that is really bad,” Caddell said of the media outlets publishing these polls as news stories.

“The key issue in this business is's the real issue, the explicit message in all of this is, you got to tell the truth, I don't believe that anyone doing a poll today, for whoever, could credibly release numbers that are plus 11 for the Democratic Party,” said Schoen.

Caddell said the reason for skewing the polls, “what is the effect, is it to build an artificial picture, an illusion, of great Obama momentum.”

Without the oversampling, Romney is ahead by a significant amount.

Unskewed  Polls provides the numbers when the bias in sampling is removed and gives a clear picture of why the Obama media is so focused on Romney and destroying him in an attempt to depress conservative voters, in order to protect Obama's reelection campaign.

Just show up to vote in November and we can say "Goodbye Barack Obama, Hello President Romney."

H/T Greg Lewis via email and PJ Tatler.