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Saturday, February 04, 2012

4 More Years Of Obama, Or Potentially 8 More With Obama-Like Romney?

By Susan Duclos

The other day I pointed out how the Republican establishment and Mitt Romney have destroyed the enthusiasm of conservative voters.

Today we see evidence of that all around. People tweeting they will never vote for Romney if he becomes the GOP nominee. People stating via email they would rather sit out the election because if Romney becomes the GOP nominee they feel they would be opening the door to a potential eight more years of Obama-like policies if Romney won the 2012 election.

Via The Hill:

Those who continue to believe that Romney can be stopped are focused — as is the campaign of Newt Gingrich — on the possibility of a long delegate fight. They have largely given up hope of anyone winning a knockout victory over Romney, hoping instead that some other candidate can prevent the former Massachusetts governor from wrapping the race up before the Republican National Convention, which is set for Tampa, Fla., in late August.

In New Hampshire, which Romney won, turnout of actual Republicans was down 16 percent from the 2008 numbers. In South Carolina, which Gingrich won, there was a "big jump" in turnout. In Florida, which Romney won, the 33 counties he beat Gingrich with had less turnout than the turnout in the 34 counties that Gingrich won.

From the Bottom Line of the earlier post mentioned above, I said:

Romney does not excite conservatives. While many will coalesce behind him if he wins enough delegates to become the Republican nominee, there is another segment that think he is no better than Obama and will not bother voting at all, handing Obama a win for reelection.

In 2008, many conservatives pointed to Barack Obama's voting record, his prior history. He spoke a good game in speeches but what he said did not match what he did beforehand.

Now it is 2012 and we have Mitt Romney and if we apply the same standard we preached in 2008 about Obama we see that Romney talks a good game also, he spews conservative rhetoric, but it does not match what he has said and done previously.

Romney on gun control in 2002- “We do have tough guns laws in Mass. I support them. I won’t chip away them. I believe they help protect us and provide for our safety.”(video)

Romney on abortion in 2002- “I will preserve and protect a woman’s right to choose and have devoted and dedicated to honor my word in that regard. I will not change any provision of Mass Pro-choice laws.”(video)

Everyone already knows where Romney stands on healthcare, it was his Romneycare that was used as a basis for Obamacare.

Romney is practically the same as Barack Obama in action if not in campaign rhetoric.

That is part of Romney's past record. Now he wants to become the GOP nominee so of course he says what party voters want to hear but his rhetoric does not match his past actions or statements.

Here is the good news: With the Nevada caucuses being held today, there will be 5 of 50 primary/caucuses held. That leaves 45.

(Full GOP primary/caucus schedule HERE)

Out of 1144 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination, Romney only has 73. Gingrich 23. Santorum 13. RonPaul 3.(Source- New York Times)

Ron Paul and Rick Santorum have both maintained their goal is to collect delegates. Every delegate award to a candidate that is not Mitt Romney, is a delegate that does not get added to Romney's total.

Before the Florida primary, Gingrich said "When you take all the non-Romney votes, it’s very likely that at the convention there will be a non-Romney majority and maybe a very substantial one. My job is to convert that into a Gingrich majority."

February has Nevada (caucus), which is today. Maine (caucus) which is today through the 11th. February 7th is Colorado and Minnesota (both caucuses) and Missouri which is a primary but no delegates awarded until March 17th, where they hold caucuses to determine delegate allocation. February 28th is Arizona and Michigan (both primaries).

March is the do or die month though, with 20 primary/caucuses being held, many of which on Super Tuesday which is March 6th.

By the end of March, GOP supporters should know one way or another whether to let their "oh God, not Romney" despair take hold of them or whether they can rest easy that Romney won't be able to gather enough delegates to declare him the GOP nominee, forcing a contest at convention.

Via email we see there will be a Gingrich press conference tonight in Nevada, which is causing speculation as to whether he will stay in the race until convention as he has previously stated he would.

Las Vegas, NV - Newt 2012 released its public schedule for Saturday, February 4th in Nevada.

Saturday, February 4th

Newt 2012 Nevada Caucus Press Conference
8:00 pm - 9:00 pm PT
Venetian/Palazzo Congress Center
Bellini Ballroom # 2001-2102
(Behind the Blue Man Group Theatre)
3325 Las Vegas Boulevard South
Las Vegas, NV 89109

Anti-Romney Republicans are hoping he continues on.