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Thursday, January 21, 2010

Message Sent, Message Received..... By Some Democrats

The fallout from Scott Brown's win in the Massachusetts special election against the Democratic candidate Martha Coakley is just beginning, but this is Washington and memories seem to be short when it comes to lessons learned... but for the moment, the message that was sent and has been received by some Democrats and they understand that Brown's victory might very well be only the tip of the iceberg.

The message

People do not like how the Democrats have handled their majorities to date, the bailouts, the massive spending, the jamming through legislation with no bipartisan support and the backroom deals.

The fallout

Some Democratic politicians are "fretting" about the November 2010 elections, understanding that now, even states they assumed were safe, as they did with Massachusetts, are not safe for Democrats.

Via The Politico:

The Republican victory in Massachusetts has sent a wave of fear through the halls of the Senate, with moderate and liberal Democrats second-guessing their party’s agenda — and worrying that they’ll be the next victims of voters’ anger.

“If there’s anybody in this building that doesn’t tell you they’re more worried about elections today, you absolutely should slap them,” said Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.).


Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) called the Massachusetts race a “wake-up call” for his party and said his colleagues were in a “reflective” mood at a private lunch Wednesday.

Several Democratic incumbents said later that none of the 19 Democratic seats up this year are safe — and that fundamental parts of the agenda need to be re-examined to win over voters back home.

“Every state is now in play,” said Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), who faces the toughest reelection battle of her career — most likely against wealthy Republican Carly Fiorina.

The Democratic politicians that understand the message that was sent are genuinely concerned, and with good cause.

According to Rasmussen, if the elections were held today, Democrats would lose approximately 7 seats in the Senate and as it stands, projections say they will lose 5.


Looking at one of the few reports seen on the exit polls from Tuesday night's election shows that Obamacare aka Healthcare, was the "most important issue" to voters going into the voting booths and that 52 percent were against the reform proposals going through the House and the Senate and 42 percent of the voters said they actually cast their vote to stop Obama and the Democrats Obamacare plans.

Fifty-two percent of Bay State voters who were surveyed as the polls closed said they opposed the federal health care reform measure and 42 percent said they cast their ballot to help stop President Obama from passing his chief domestic initiative.

"I'm not surprised it was the top issue, but I was surprised by how overwhelming an issue it was. It became a focal point for the frustration that has been brewing with voters, and it's a very personal issue that affects everyone," said Tony Fabrizio of Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, a Republican firm that conducted the exit poll of 800 voters.

"A plurality of voters said their vote was to stop the president's health care plan — more than those saying it was a vote against his policies in general," Fabrizio wrote in a memo that accompanied his exit polling.

Some would claim that the tone of Massachusetts' voters is their own and is not echoed across the country, but a look at the Real Clear Politics national average show differently.

Using the figures from the last ten polls done on the topic, from Rasmussen, AP, ABC/Washington Post, NBS/WallStreet Journal, Fox News, Quinnipiac, CNN/Opinion Research, Gallup, Pew and National Journal, we see that 49.7 percent of those polled are against/opposed to Obama and the Democrat's Health Care plan, with only 40.2 percent being for it.

The plurality of Americans are against the plans currently in the House and Senate and this is affecting the numbers from a variety of the 2010 election races.

For example, Arkansas, where Democratic Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln is up for reelection in November.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Arkansas shows Lincoln’s support for reelection at 38% or 39% no matter which of four potential Republican challengers she is matched against. In surveys last September and December, her support was between 39% and 41% in these match-ups.

State Senator Gilbert Baker leads Lincoln by 12, and State Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren holds an eight-point edge over the incumbent. Curtis Coleman, a private businessman, and Tom Cox, head of the Arkansas T.E.A. Party, both lead her by 10 points. In reality, however, the numbers reflect very little about the challengers and are best viewed as a referendum on the incumbent.

Why is she more vulnerable?


The two-term senator, who was reelected with 54% of the vote in 2004, appears more vulnerable because of her visible and pivotal role in the Senate debate over health care. Lincoln was the last Democrat to vote for allowing the debate to formally begin, but she took a lower profile in the vote for final passage.

Just 35% of Arkansas voters favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. Sixty percent (60%) are opposed. Those figures include 17% who Strongly Favor the plan and 51% who are Strongly Opposed.

Moving along, we see the same pattern in Nevada, where Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader is trailing in the polls as well.

His vulnerability? That is right, again, Obamacare.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Nevada voters say they have followed news reports about Reid’s comments about Obama, including 55% who have followed very closely. But his bigger problem appears to be his championing of a health care plan that remains unpopular in his home state.

Reid is out front pushing the national health care plan crafted by President Obama and congressional Democrats, but just 39% of Nevada voters support that plan. Fifty-four percent (54%) oppose it. Those numbers include just 21% who Strongly Favor it while more than twice as many, 45%, Strongly Oppose the plan. These numbers are comparable to the overall feelings about the health care plan nationwide.

These are two examples of Democratic politicians, in danger and their main vulnerability is Obamacare.

This is why many Democratic politicians, including Obama, came straight out after the Massachusetts special election named Brown as the next Senator of Massachusetts and said things need to "slow down", have Brown seated and move on from there.

The Democrats are running scared and they should be. Despite the public knowledge that more Americans are against the massive Obamacare bills currently in the House and Senate, the Democrats continued to push, vote, make backroom deals for votes and ignore what the plurality wanted and they just got a wake up call.

Those who listen to it might just be able to save their political careers.

Those that turn over and hit the snooze button and continue along the same path of jamming something through without any bipartisan support, against the will of the people.... will be replaced come November.

The bottom line is that these politicians are voted in to represent their constituents, not to choose party over the people.

It may sound cliched, but the people voted them in and they can vote them out just as easily and some have gotten that message... others just never will.