Custom Search

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

And There Goes Pennsylvania

Senator Arlen Specter who was losing his proverbial butt as the Republican incumbent Senator for Pennsylvania, decided to switch parties and become a Democrat, hoping he would do better in the upcoming November election.

Well, that didn't work out so well for him and the news keeps getting worse.

Among all registered voters, Mr. Specter was tied with Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey at 30 percent with 35 percent saying they don't know whom to support. Mr. Specter was up by 8 percentage points in an August poll.

But among 395 likely voters, Mr. Toomey led Mr. Specter 45 to 31 percent. Mr Toomey led Mr. Sestak by 41 to 19 percent. The pool of likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Six in 10 voters think it is time for a new senator.

The news is even worse for Barack Obama tough, even though he is not up for reelection until 2012, his stigma is affecting House and Senate races and will be a factor in the November elections.

A month after Mr. Obama took office, the F&M poll showed 55 percent thought he was doing a good or excellent job and 36 percent said he was doing a fair or poor job. In the latest poll, that was down to 38 percent good or excellent and 61 percent fair or poor.

The way Pennsylvanians view the president personally also dimmed. In February, 56 percent had a favorable view and 23 percent an unfavorable view. In the latest poll, 44 percent each had favorable and unfavorable views. In October, it was 45 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable.

His decline is tied heavily to economic concerns:

- 40 percent believe they are financially worse off than a year ago compared to 10 percent who think they are better off. About half believe they stand the same.

- 29 percent of state residents said health care will be the most important issue in their vote for senator followed by 24 percent who cited economic issues, jobs and bailouts.

- 26 percent said economic issues and jobs will be uppermost in their minds as they vote for governor. Taxes ran second at 13 percent.

- 53 percent believe the state is on the wrong track, 39 percent on the right track. Those numbers are actually better than an October poll when 60 percent said wrong track, 32 percent right track. The improvement could reflect the resolution of the state budget standoff, which had just concluded when the October poll was taken, Dr. Madonna said.

Hot Air points to the ramifications:

Clearly, though, Specter is about to get the boot from fed-up Keystone State voters. Democrats might want to push Specter out of the race and find another Democrat with statewide standing to run against Toomey, in the same manner that they pushed Chris Dodd out for Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut. The irony is that Specter switched parties in the first place to cling to power — and now he’s put himself in a spot where neither party wants anything to do with him.

Going out on a limb here and making a prediction about Obama and tonight's State Of The Union speech.

His polling numbers will rise by a few points, for about two weeks and then they will drop back to where they are now before declining even more yet again.