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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Congratulations To Scott Brown

While from the title of this piece alone people may think I am preemptively congratulating Scott Brown for winning the Massachusetts special election for the Senate seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy against the Democratic candidate Martha Coakley, I am not.

I am congratulating Scott Brown for turning this race into a race, against the odds that were placed against him from the onset. After all, this is Massachusetts we are talking about where Democrats outnumber Republicans on a large scale and even Independents (who outnumber both Democrats and Republicans) claim to "lean" towards being Democrats.

I am congratulating Scott Brown on making this a race that is being watched across the country, carefully.

Win or lose tonight, Scott Brown deserves kudos for starting out trailing badly, to ending up, the day of the race, being favored by even pollsters that a couple days ago refused to acknowledge he was favored.

Brown has done something else as well, although with the election being held today, not many are realizing the ramifications as of yet. Brown has given the Blue Dog Democrats, especially those voted into red districts, a foothold, some incentive to continue to stand by their principles and do what their constituents elected them to do instead of voting by party alone, against the best interest or wants of their constituents.

Brown has energized the Republican base as well. Rallies where there was not enough room to fit everyone inside had people holding signs for Brown, lining the streets, while Obama and Coakley held their own and couldn't even fill up a 3,000 person hall.

Brown has given us a window into what November could look like, with Republicans taking more than the projected 10-20 seats back in the House as well as making gains in the Senate.

While Democrats are busy preparing for a Brown win, on Obamacare, they are carefully planning how to get Obamacare slammed through, which is opposed by the majority of Americans, determined to pass it before Brown can take office and vote against it.

Many believe that for most Democrats up for reelection in November, that would be political suicide.

Via Hot Air, we see Nancy Pelosi, not looking so good these days, vowing that she will get Obamacare through, one way or another.

Among the crap House Democrats would have to swallow whole to pass Reid’s bill unchanged: No public option, no ban on abortion funding, no exemption for unions from the “Cadillac tax” on higher-end plans, and, as the Times reminds us, no eligibility for illegals to buy insurance on the new national exchange. Fearless prediction: They won’t have the votes. Progressives hate the Senate bill as is and Blue Dogs will flip out if Scotty B shocks the world, and there’ll probably also be a few Dems who object on good-government grounds to trying to ram this through after such a clear repudiation from blue-state voters. Pelosi has only a five-vote margin to work with; it’s hard to believe that she can hold that together under the circumstances, especially since a Brown win would be a dagger in the heart of the left’s CW about how it’s more important to pass something than nothing — which is, in a nutshell, the proposition that Coakley’s now running on. Are there 218 Democrats with balls enough to take all that on?

Some liberal Democrats understand that since Pelosi only had a 5 point margin in the original vote for the House's version of Obamacare, there is no way she can jam through the bill now because many politicians will look at the Massachusetts Senate election as a crystal ball into their own political futures.

Andrew Sullivan:

Even if Coakley wins - and my guess is she'll lose by a double digit margin - the bill is dead. The most Obama can hope for is a minimalist alternative that simply mandates that insurance companies accept people with pre-existing conditions and are barred from ejecting patients when they feel like it. That's all he can get now - and even that will be a stretch. The uninsured will even probably vote Republican next time in protest at Obama's failure! That's how blind the rage is.

Despite Pelosi's words to the contrary, some liberal progressive House Democrats understand that a Brown win would indeed make it almost impossible to keep those that initially voted on the House version because it does not reconcile to the Senate version and many have said they will not vote for the Senate version.

“I think you can make a pretty good argument that health care might be dead,” Weiner said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

Weiner, one of the House’s more progressive members, said “it’s going to be very hard” to ask members of the House to vote for the Senate bill – what some believe would be a likely scenario if Democrats lose the Massachusetts Senate seat.

The New York legislator’s gripes are likely to continue to emerge from some of the more progressive members of the House, who will be hard-pressed to vote for the Senate’s far more moderate legislation. They have compromised too far already, many liberal Democrats say.

But that could be the Hail Mary for health-care overhaul if Scott Brown bests Martha Coakley Tuesday in what is shaping up to be one of the more shocking elections in the last decade.

“I’d have a very difficult time doing that,” Weiner said about voting “yes” to the Senate’s bill.

No doubt after tonight's election, the next "big" battle, whatever it is, will take the headlines after the recriminations, the blame game, and the finger pointing (which has already started)trails away, but for now, this race has galvanized American voters, the GOP and has perhaps given the Moderate Democrats something to think about before casting their next vote on unpopular legislation against the wishes of their constituents.

Scott Brown deserves congratulations and kudos, whether he wins tonight or not.

So..... Congratulations to Scott Brown for a job well done.