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Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Poll: Plurality Of Republican Voters Less Likely To Vote For Incumbent That Supports Amnesty For Illegals

By Susan Duclos

The first point here is that "pathway to citizenship" is amnesty, pure and simple. One of the main Senate supporters on the Republican side, Marco Rubio, made that very clear in 2010 when he said "First of all, earned path to citizenship is basically code for amnesty. It's what they call it. And the reality of it is this: This has to do with the bottom line that America cannot be the only country in the world that does not enforce its immigration laws. It is unfair to the people that have legally entered this country to create an alternative pathway for individuals who entered illegally and knowingly did so. (Video of Rubio saying that here)

According to a United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, 49 percent of Republicans say they would be less likely to vote to re-elect a lawmaker that supports amnesty aka "pathway to citizenship" for those in the country illegally. 30 percent say it wouldn't effect their vote and 15 percent would be more likely to vote for that candidate.

Among all adults surveyed, immigration is something of a moot issue: 42 percent of them said a vote either for or against immigration reform would not greatly affect their support for their senator or representative. Thirty-three percent said it would make them less likely to support him or her, and 21 percent said such a vote would make them more likely to back the incumbent.

This is a very good reason why Republicans in the House have no taste for pushing the Senate amnesty bill through the house of Representatives.

“We have a minority of the minority in the Senate voting for this bill,” said Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma, referring to the 15 or so Republicans expected to back the Senate measure. “That’s not going to put a lot of pressure on the majority of the majority in the House.” 

Two senior House Republican leadership aides were more blunt when speaking privately: Speaker John A. Boehner has no intention of angering conservative voters and jeopardizing the House Republican majority in 2014 in the interest of courting Hispanic voters on behalf of a 2016 Republican presidential nominee who does not yet exist.

The difference between the House of Representatives and the  Senate, other than the House is controlled by the GOP and the Senate by Democrats, is that all 435 House seats are on the ballot in the 2014 midterm elections, but only one-third (33) Senate seats are on the ballot, 23 of them seats held by Democrats and 10 seats held by Republicans.

Senate Republicans supporting the immigration reform bill which includes amnesty, have far less to worry about in the 2014 elections than House Republicans do.

Another reason the House of Representatives see no upside in pushing the Senate's amnesty bill forward lies in priority polling, from a variety of organizations, where the economy dominates what Americans feel as the most important issue and immigration doesn't even hit double digits.

The Senate amnesty bill is dead on arrival in the House.


5 Senators Who Support Immigration Bill Don't Know Answer to Key Question About It