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Tuesday, September 07, 2010

CNN and ABC/Wapo Polls Show Republicans Gaining Ground Heading Into Midterms; UPDATE WSJ/NBC Polls Show The Same

Gallup, Rasmussen and now a CNN poll and a ABC/Washington Post poll all shower Democrats with bad news to include a generic congressional gap favoring Republicans as well as trust issues on key areas.

Rasmussen only shows Republicans with a 6 point lead on the generic congressional ballot, whereas Gallup shows an unprecedented 10 point lead for Republicans.

The newer poll from ABC/Washington Post gives Republicans a 13 point advantage among those judged to be "more likely to vote", showing the Democrats still spiraling downward heading into the November midterms.


Among all voters, 47 percent say they would back the Republican in their congressional district if the election were held now, while 45 percent would vote for the Democrat. Any GOP advantage on this question has been rare in past years - and among those most likely to vote this fall, the Republican advantage swells to 53 percent to the Democrats' 40 percent.

Voters were also asked whether they think it is more important to have Democrats in charge of Congress to help support the president's policies or to have Republicans in control to serve as a check on Obama's agenda. Here, 55 percent say they prefer Republicans, while 39 percent choose Democrats. The GOP's 16-point edge is double what it was in July.

ABC breakdown:

• Ninety-two percent of Americans say the economy's in bad shape. A mere 24 percent believe it's improving. And for the first time numerically more say Obama's economic program has made the economy worse, 33 percent, than improved it, 30 percent. Views that he's helped the economy have dropped by 9 points since spring.

• A majority, 52 percent, now disapproves of the way Obama is handling his job overall, another first in ABC/Post polls. Intensity increasingly is against him, with those who disapprove "strongly" outnumbering strong approvers by 14 points. A record 57 percent rate him negatively on handling the economy, "strongly" so by an even wider margin, 2-1.

• Seventy-eight percent now describe themselves as dissatisfied with the way the federal government is working, up 14 points just since July to the most since October 1992. That includes 25 percent who are "angry," tying the record. Among likely voters, 30 percent are angry – and they favor Republican candidates by a vast 47-point margin.

CNN asks questions of trust in key areas and again, Republicans come out ahead on the Economy 46 to 43 percent, Foreign Affairs 47 to 44 percent, Afghanistan 45 to 42 percent, Terrorism 54 to 34 percent, Taxes 46 to 43 percent, Federal Budget 46 to 40 percent and Illegal Immigration 53 to 35 percent.

Democrats in the CNN poll hold the lead on 2 out of the 9 issues, Social Security/Medicare and Healthcare, Dems lead with 1 percent on healthcare and 2 percent on SS and Medicare.

This CNN poll on trust issues follows both Rasmussen and Gallup polls showing the same pattern.

Rasmussen showed Republicans trusted more on 10 issues and Gallup gave Republicans seven of nine key issues.

Rasmussen was the only survey using a "likely voter" survey until ABC/Wapo specified it in their poll released today which severely changed their numbers from a 2 percent lead for Republicans to a 13 percent lead..

[Update] Wall Street Journal/NBC also conducted a poll where Republicans and Dems tie until they use the "likely voters" model as most polling organizations tend to start using as election draw closer to get a predictive value.

When the likely voter model is used, WSJ/NBC also finds Republicans leading by 9 points, 49 to 40 percent.

When voters overall are asked whether they prefer that November's vote produce a Congress controlled by Democrats or by Republicans, they split evenly, 43% favoring Democrats and 43% Republicans.

But among those who appear most likely to vote, based on their level of interest in the campaign and their history of voting, the Republicans own a dramatic 49% to 40% advantage. If that kind of lead holds, Republicans would almost certainly take back control of the House.

Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, states "We all know that there is a hurricane coming for the Democrats. We just don’t know if it will be a Category 4 or a Category 5"

Even more interesting is among those expressing a high interest in voting:

The survey shows that among likely voters — based on their interest and past voting history — 49 percent prefer a Republican-controlled Congress while 40 percent want one run by Democrats. Among those expressing a high interest in voting, that GOP lead increases 18 points, 53 percent to 35 percent.