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Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Gallup: Obama's Approval Ratings 'Lowest Yet'

According to the graph Gallup shows, in 14 months Barack Obama has managed to drop from a 67 percent approval rating to a 47 percent, the lowest yet in the Gallup polls conducted from February 2010 to April 2010.

(Click image to enlarge)

The breakdown by party seems to be pretty consistent with 83 percent of Democrats approving of his handling of his job, down from 88 percent back in February of 2009, and only 14 percent of Republicans approving which is down from 41 percent back in February of 2009.

His approval among Independents though has continued to drop and is now at 43 percent which is down from 62 percent back in February of 2009.

Obama's approval rating is clearly not being lifted by positive views of his political party. The Democratic Party in Gallup's most recent survey has a 41% favorable rating, the lowest in Gallup's 18-year history of measuring it.

Gallup samples adults, Rasmussen, on the other hand samples, likely voters and tends to prove more representative over time as other polling organization's numbers generally start confirming Rasmussen result a couple weeks after Rasmussen produces them.

Overall, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. The Rasmussen Reports Media Meter shows that 46% of the President’s coverage has been positive. That’s down from 60% just after passage of the health care law.

The enthusiasm gap when asked about who "strongly approves" and who "strongly disapproves" does not bode well for Democrats in November.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 31% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove

Gallup's generic ballot for Congress, asking if voters would vote for a Democrat of Republican is showing yet another pattern emerging, drop in support for Democrats and a rise in support for Republicans with 48 percent saying they would vote for the generic Republican candidate and only 44 percent saying they would vote for the generic Democratic candidate.

Rasmussen's generic results are even worse for Democrats.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 47% would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, up from 46% last week, while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent, down a point from the previous survey.

Again the breakdown among Dems and Reps is not surprising, but looking at the pattern Rasmussen highlights, should be concerning to Democratic candidates running for election or reelection this November.

In the second week of March, Republicans posted a 10-point lead on the Generic Ballot, their biggest margin in nearly three years of weekly tracking. GOP candidates started 2010 ahead by nine points, while support for Democrats fell to its lowest level over the same period. Towards the end of 2009, Republicans enjoyed a more modest lead over Democrats, with the gap between the two down to four points in early December. Still, since the beginning of the year, the Republican lead hasn't dipped below seven points.

Throughout the fall and winter of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 42% to 47%. Republican support ranged from 37% to 41%. When Obama was inaugurated in January 2009, Democrats enjoyed a seven-point advantage on the Generic Ballot.

The two parties were very close on the Generic Ballot throughout the spring of 2009, but in late June, around the same time Democrats began their campaign for health care reform, Republicans pulled ahead for good.

Out of recent polls from multiple polling groups such as Gallup, Fox, CNN/Opinion Research, Rasmussen, USA Today/Gallup and Washington Post, only Washington Post shows Democrats ahead in the generic congressional ballot and that poll dated back to late March.

Congressional job approval is also hitting the lowest points, according to every polling group asking the question.

The Real Clear Politics average (averaging all the polls conducted) shows a 75.5 percent disapproval rating for Congress with only 19 percent approving of the job they are doing.

Democrats need a game changer before November, something huge to turn around these numbers and many assumed and even predicted the passage of Obamacare would be that game changer, yet the slight bounce Obama received was gone within a week and his numbers are still falling, as are those for Congress as the number of those wishing the law to be repealed, are still growing.

What will they pin their political hopes on before then? What is your best guess as to what they will choose as their "game changer?"