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Friday, March 09, 2012

Obamacare May Have Cost Democrats The House. Will It Cost Them The WH And Senate In 2012?

By Susan Duclos

Short and sweet, via The Washington Post:

The study, by five professors from institutions across the country, looks at the health care bill alongside other contentious votes in the 111th Congress and determines that, more so than the stimulus or the cap-and-trade energy bill, it cost Democrats seats. In fact, they lost almost exactly the number of seats that decided the majority.

The study ran 10,000 simulations of a scenario in which all vulnerable Democrats voted against the health care bill and found that the rejections would have saved Democrats an average of 25 seats, which would have made the House parties close to a tie. (Republicans won 63 seats overall, but the study suggests around 25 of them would have been salvaged.)

In 62 percent of the simulations, Democrats were able to keep the House.

The Supreme Court hears arguments this month on the constitutionality of Obamacare aka Affordable Care Act of 2010, specifically the individual mandate, with expectations of a ruling in June or July, just months before the 2012 elections where Barack Obama is campaigning to be reelected and 23 out of 33 Senate contests are for Democratically held seats.

In February 2012, Gallup found that 72 percent of Americans believe the individual mandate- the government’s requirement for Americans to purchase health insurance — is unconstitutional.

Worse yet, even among those that thought the healthcare law was a good thing, 54 percent believe the individual mandate is unconstitutional.

Worst of all, even Obama's and Democratic politician's base, the majority of Democrats come in at 56 percent saying it is unconstitutional.

The Supreme Court timing is guaranteed to bring Obamacare right back to front and center of the political campaign season, which leads one to wonder if Obamacare will factor highly enough among other issues to possibly cost Democrats control of the Senate and the White House.