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Friday, September 03, 2010

Anti-Democratic Sentiment Pivotal In Midterms

Gallup, who recently reported that Republicans lead by 10 percentage points in the Generic Congressional Ballot, comes out with another report showing that more people will be voting against the Democrats in the 2010 midterm election than those voting for the Republicans.

Gallup, titled "Anti-Democratic Sentiment Aids GOP Lead in 2010 Vote."

The Republicans' lead in the congressional generic ballot over the past month may be due as much to voters' rejecting the Democrats as embracing the Republicans. Among voters backing Republican candidates, 44% say their preference is "more a vote against the Democratic candidate," while 48% say it is "more a vote for the Republican candidate.

Furthermore, putting aside Republicans voting for Republicans and Democrats voting for Democrats, the numbers I have been watching this year are the Independents, those not affiliated with either party, because those voters will be what tips the scale one direction or the other.

In July 2010, Gallup showed where Independents stand:

By an average 10 percentage-point margin since March, 45% to 35%, independent registered voters have consistently preferred the Republican to the Democrat when asked which congressional candidate they would vote for in their district. Independents' preference for Republicans has been generally consistent over this time, with the gap in favor of Republicans increasing slightly since March, from 8 to 12 points.

August 2010, reports came out stating Independents were backing away from support of Obama and Democrats.

Gallup- Implications:

Gallup finds a higher proportion of voting against the incumbent party than in past midterm election cycles, with close to half of Republican voters saying their vote is based on opposition to the Democrats. This reflects frustration with the direction of the country under President Obama and the Democratic Congress -- the poll finds 20% of Americans satisfied with the way thing are going in the country. Along the same lines, 35% of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes President Obama, while a smaller 27% say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports him.

Read the whole thing.

News like unemployment rising from 9.5 percent to 9.6 percent, according to the Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not going to help public sentiment get any better for Democratic politicians heading into the midterms.