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Monday, August 31, 2009

Handicappers Predict House Losses In 2010

Reporting on all the latest polling, seeing discontent and anger from ordinary citizens across the country in townhalls, not only about Obamacare, but about spending and the government deficit, we see a pattern emerging which now has experts predicting huge Dem losses in the House in 2010.

Via The Politico:

Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House — not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance.

Top political analyst Charlie Cook, in a special August 20 update to subscribers, wrote that “the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats.”

"Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats,” he wrote.

Hugh Hewitt writes
"If Democrats continue to push for the deeply unpopular Obamacare, their numbers will only get worse."

I take it a step further in believing that no matter what the Democrats do at this point, the tide has turned.

They have control of the House and Senate and a Democratic president who is popular, but his policies are not, and are earning criticisms from both sides of the aisle as well as right down the middle.

The stimulus plan costs $787 billion and right after that they passed another spending bill for $410 billion, all loaded up with earmarks and to which Obama signed. The latest White House projections as well as the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) projections expect a $2 trillion hike on the formerly projected Deficit, bringing it to $9 trillion.

The of course Obamacare, which Obama tried to get the House and Senate to jam through before most even had a chance to read it, that failed and now people know what is in it and are coming out against it with majority numbers.

Obamacare might have been the straw that broke the camels back, but once broken, not easy to reset it, if at all possible.

Say they pass Obamacare without the public option or any truly controversial portion, the liberal base rebels, have already started doing so publicly at the mere thought of it, and their energies are no longer focused on helping Democrats maintain control.

Say they leave the public option in, they lose over 60 percent of Independents and moderates, which polling shows is the figure of Independents against Obamacare as it is written, against the public option and the trillion dollar cost of Obamacare.

The elderly have been showing up at townhalls all over the country, the largest voting demographic, and they are opposed to Obamacare again, by majority figures.

Obamacare, as is, has turned into a hot potato for the Democrats, making them damned if they do and damned if they don't.

Obama, nor the Democrats can take back the spending bills, nor the earmarks aka pork, nor can they change the latest figures on the deficit.

For better or for worse, they are on the tide and having to ride it where it takes them and it has been pulling them under at a rate so fast, there was no way to predict it.

So, experts have made their predictions on the 2010 race and there is plenty of times for the numbers to fluctuate, but how many truly believe they are going to stop going down?

I would like to see what those experts believe about the Senate, where it would take less seats for Republicans to take control again.

Is it any wonder why moderate Democratic politicians and Blue Dog Democrats voted into conservative districts, are distancing themselves from Obama policies, especially the more controversial parts of Obamacare?

I said when Obama got voted in, when the House, the Senate and the White House were all controlled by the Democrats, that it would be a good thing in a way because they could no longer blame the big bad Republicans for every single thing that happened and they would be held accountable for their decisions, their bills, and their spending.

In 2010, they will be.