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Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Final Polls Released On The Morning Of Presidential Election Day 2012: Dead Heat

By Susan Duclos

[Update] Gallup's numbers are in and they show Romney 49% and Obama 48%. While the two below see an actual tie, Gallup's is a statistical tie.

Both Politico's Battleground tracking poll and Rasmussen's national poll, issued the morning of November 6, 2012, election day in America, have both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama tied.

Rasmussen has both candidates garnering 49 percent of the vote nationwide. Politico's battleground poll has both candidates tied at 47 percent.

Both polls have candidate favorability tied as well with both candidates at 50 percent each.

Both polls have Mitt Romney ahead of Obama in who is trusted more on the economy. Rasmussen has Romney ahead by three and the battleground polling from Politico has Romney ahead by six.

Via Politico:

Romney maintains a significant 6-point advantage on who is better for the economy and creating jobs, 51 percent to 45 percent. A majority, 53 percent, disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy, 57 disapprove of his spending policies and 54 think the country is on the wrong track.

For the first time all year, Romney has taken the lead on which candidate will better handle tax policy. Obama was up by 2 points for the past four weeks, but Romney pulled ahead by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent — a statistical tie.

Obama leads Romney on non economic issues:

Obama is stronger on non-economic issues, but the margin has narrowed in several categories. His 10-point edge on foreign policy has tightened to 7 points in the past few days. His 8-point lead on Medicare narrowed to 6 points. A 14-point advantage on standing up for the middle class last week ends at 11 percent.

Obama’s 5-point advantage on the question of which candidate more shares your values last week is now a 1-point advantage, 48 percent to 47 percent. A 3-point edge on who is the stronger leader dwindled to 1 point.

Romney has taken the lead on who voter's believe can bring about "change", which was part of Obama's theme in 2008.

Romney has used his closing argument to argue that he’s best suited to bring real change, and it appears to have had an impact. Voters see him as more able to get things done, by 49 percent to 44 percent, than Obama.


 The gender gap has expanded in the final days. Obama now leads among women by 15 points, 55 to 40 percent. Romney leads among men by 16 points, 55 to 39 percent.

Obama leads by 16 in urban areas (55-39). Romney leads by 22 in rural areas (59-37). The suburbs have drifted toward Romney, who now leads by 9 (52-43).

According to pollster pollster Ed Goeas, "The margin we have in the rural vote is offsetting the urban vote, and the suburban vote is what’s driving the whole thing."

Last but not least Politico reveals the age demographic favorites:

Obama does not have quite the advantage with middle-age voters that he did four years ago. He leads by 19 percent (57-36) among those 18- to-34-year-olds and by 4 percent (51-47) among those 35 to 44. Romney is up 11 (52-41) among 45-to-64-year-olds and 10 (52-42) among seniors.

Romney, who joked about being 65 in New Hampshire Monday night, leads with white seniors by 19 points, 57 percent to 38 percent. This constituency is especially intense in both its enthusiasm for Romney and concern about the direction of the country.

Unless states in the East which have polls close first and results tallied, overwhelmingly tip in either candidate's direction, hard, fast and big,  this could be a very long night indeed as the country waits to see whether Barack Obama is reelected or whether Mitt Romney becomes the 45th President of the United States of America.