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Monday, September 14, 2009

2010 Elections: 'Toxic' For Democrats


Despite sweeping Democratic successes in the past two national elections, continuing job losses and President Barack Obama's slipping support could lead to double-digit losses for the party in next year's congressional races and may even threaten their House control.

Fifty-four new Democrats were swept into the House in 2006 and 2008, helping the party claim a decisive majority as voters soured on a Republican president and embraced Obama's message of hope and change. Many of the new Democrats are in districts carried by Republican John McCain in last year's presidential contest; others are in traditional swing districts that have proved tough for either party to hold.

From New Hampshire to Nevada, House Democrats also will be forced to defend votes on Obama's $787 billion economic recovery package and on energy legislation viewed by many as a job killer in an already weak economy.

Add to that the absence of Obama from the top of the ticket, which could reduce turnout among blacks, liberals and young people, and the likelihood of a highly motivated GOP base confused by the president's proposed health care plan and angry at what they consider reckless spending and high debt.

Taken together, it could be the most toxic environment for Democrats since 1994, when the party lost 34 House incumbents and 54 seats altogether. Democrats currently have a 256-178 edge in the House, with one vacancy. Republicans would have to pick up 40 seats to regain control.

Will Republicans take the 40 seats needed to take control of the House? Doubtful.

What is more likely is that they will will win, and double digits, and even up the numbers quite a bit. Then we have the Senate, where Reid and a few others are facing challenges and are behind in the polls, so pickups in the senate are very likely as well.

The more the Democrats spend spend spend and tax tax tax and bailout big corporations and pass stimulus bills that do not stimulate and hide earmarks and pork and quadruple the projections for the country's deficit, the more seats will be lost in 2010 and leading into the 2012 elections.

Let us not forget the public option portion of Obamacare, where Democrats have annoyed and lost support of one of the largest demographics in any election, the seniors, who have become very involved in opposing Obamacare and the cuts to medicare that Obama and Democrats want to make to pay for their other programs.

If Democrats continue down the path they have been running full speed ahead on since January, the losses by 2010 very well may rise significantly from projections now.

Do these politicians learn though from watching their numbers sink like the Titanic?


Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democrat who recently filled the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat as chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, said Sunday that a Senate health-care reform bill would include a "strong" public option and that it would get through by the holiday recess.


While gaining 40 seats is doubtful, Democrats might just hand them over to Republicans anyway, on a silver platter, at this rate.