Custom Search

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Voters Nearly Three Times More Fiscally And Socially Conservative Than Liberal

29 percent vs 10 percent, almost three times the amount of voters self identify as both socially and fiscally conservatives than those claiming to be socially and fiscally liberal.

The breakdown when the two areas are separated are in the poll numbers as well over at Rasmussen.

Gallup and Pew have both previously found conservatives outnumber both liberals and moderates as well. (Links to those polls below)

Voters remain more conservative fiscally than socially, but 29% characterize themselves as both fiscal and social conservatives. By contrast, only 10% of Likely U.S. Voters say they are liberal in both areas, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Rasmussen is not the only polling organization that has question American's political ideological references, in January and June of 2010, Gallup found that people self identifying as conservatives continue to outnumber both liberals and moderates.

Conservatives have maintained their leading position among U.S. ideological groups in the first half of 2010. Gallup finds 42% of Americans describing themselves as either very conservative or conservative. This is up slightly from the 40% seen for all of 2009 and contrasts with the 20% calling themselves liberal or very liberal.

Pew Research Center in July of 2010 found "40% of voters describe their own political views as conservative (either conservative or very conservative), 36% as moderate, and 22% as liberal (including very liberal)."

Furthermore Pew found that more voters consider the Democratic party to be "very" liberal (26 percent) than voters that see the Republican party as "very" conservative (18 percent).

What This Could Mean To 2012 Presidential Election

More than two years in to Barack Obama's presidency, Americans have gotten a chance to see his political agenda vs his campaign rhetoric. For the first two years Barack Obama had Democrats that were in control of both the Senate and House of Representatives (which changed after 2010 midterms and now the House is controlled by the GOP) and the general public saw Obamacare pushed through and become law against the majority opposition, consistent opposition, from the public at large.

To this day, a year after Obamacare was passed, the public, according to multiple polls by a variety of organizations, averages a 52.9 percent opposition.

Note- Obamacare was used as just one example of the liberal political agenda Obama has jammed through over the last two years.

By the numbers

As of April 2011, 57 percent of of Likely Voters believe Barack Obama is "more liberal" than the voters and only 28 percent believing his political views are "about the same".

According to Gallup in June of 2010, most Independent voters found that Democrats were "too liberal".

Add to all that, an average from multiple polls shows that 59.2 percent of Americans believe the country is going in the wrong direction with only 32.8 percent believing the opposite.

Crossing Wall Street has provided a chart showing "Since 1948, ten presidents have run for re-election. Three times the unemployment rate was 7.4% or more in November of the election year. Each one of those times, the incumbent president has been defeated."

Unemployment is now at 9 percent as of the last government report.

The killing of Osama bin Laden provided Obama with a small bounce in numbers for his handling of terrorism but according to CNN polling his numbers for handling the deficit and economy still lost percentage points over the same time span.

Last but not least from USA McClatchy/Marist poll, April 2011, 44 percent of registered voters say they definitely plan to vote against Obama, with 37 percent saying they definitely plan to vote for him and 18 percent unsure.

Taking all the data above, all the polls from different sources into consideration and despite Obama's slight bump in ratings from the bin Laden raid which is already dwindling, (and which Obama is now using in his campaign re-election speeches) it is hard to imagine that "being the incumbent" advantage will balance the scales with public dissatisfaction with Obama's performance after two years in the White House.

While I believe historical data and polling are indicative of patterns and trends and therefore is always worth taking into consideration, there is no historical data which compares to the situation as it stands now.

Unemployment is higher than most years since 1948, our deficit has never been over $14 trillion and our spending and borrowing has never been as high as it is today, so there is no parallel for comparison.

We are literally in uncharted territory here and that, above all else, should terrify Barack Obama when looking at his chances to be reelected in 2012.

There is every likelihood that Barack Obama will be a one term President.

[Update] Saw this over at Memorandum after I hit publish, so adding it down here.

Gallup Headline: Obama's Approval Bump Hasn't Transferred to 2012 Prospects- Obama still running neck and neck with unnamed Republican candidate.